Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness
BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has lasted more than 2 years, and the global epidemic prevention and control situation remains challenging. Scientific decision-making is of great significance to people's production and life as well as the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control. Theref...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.973088/full |
| _version_ | 1811204104669626368 |
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| author | Yinchang Chen Zhende Wang Feng Li Jingyu Ma Jie Zhang Yunpeng Chen Ting Zhang |
| author_facet | Yinchang Chen Zhende Wang Feng Li Jingyu Ma Jie Zhang Yunpeng Chen Ting Zhang |
| author_sort | Yinchang Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has lasted more than 2 years, and the global epidemic prevention and control situation remains challenging. Scientific decision-making is of great significance to people's production and life as well as the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control. Therefore, it is all the more important to explore its patterns and put forward countermeasures for the pandemic of respiratory infections.MethodsModeling of epidemiological characteristics was conducted based on COVID-19 and influenza characteristics using improved transmission dynamics models to simulate the number of COVID-19 and influenza infections in different scenarios in a hypothetical city of 100,000 people. By comparing the infections of COVID-19 and influenza in different scenarios, the impact of the effectiveness of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on disease trends can be calculated. We have divided the NPIs into three levels according to the degree of restriction on social activities (including entertainment venues, conventions, offices, restaurants, public transport, etc.), with social controls becoming progressively stricter from level 1 to level 3.ResultsIn the simulated scenario where susceptible individuals were vaccinated with three doses of COVID-19 coronaVac vaccine, the peak number of severe cases was 26.57% lower than that in the unvaccinated scenario, and the peak number of infection cases was reduced by 10.16%. In the scenario with level three NPIs, the peak number of severe cases was reduced by 7.79% and 15.43%, and the peak number of infection cases was reduced by 12.67% and 28.28%, respectively, compared with the scenarios with NPIs intensity of level 2 and level 1. For the influenza, the peak number of severe cases in the scenario where the entire population were vaccinated was 89.85%, lower than that in the unvaccinated scenario, and the peak number of infections dropped by 79.89%.ConclusionThe effectiveness of COVID-19 coronaVac vaccine for preventing severe outcomes is better than preventing infection; for the prevention and control of influenza, we recommend influenza vaccination as a priority over strict NPIs in the long term. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T03:05:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-14d2a6caba954abd8bfc03a099446178 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T03:05:47Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-14d2a6caba954abd8bfc03a0994461782022-12-22T03:50:30ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652022-09-011010.3389/fpubh.2022.973088973088Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectivenessYinchang Chen0Zhende Wang1Feng Li2Jingyu Ma3Jie Zhang4Yunpeng Chen5Ting Zhang6Department of Journalism and Communication, School of Media and Law, NingboTech University, Ningbo, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, ChinaDepartment of General Office, China Health Education Center, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Qilu Medical College, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Immunoprophylaxis, Zhangdian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, ChinaBartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, United KingdomSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaBackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has lasted more than 2 years, and the global epidemic prevention and control situation remains challenging. Scientific decision-making is of great significance to people's production and life as well as the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control. Therefore, it is all the more important to explore its patterns and put forward countermeasures for the pandemic of respiratory infections.MethodsModeling of epidemiological characteristics was conducted based on COVID-19 and influenza characteristics using improved transmission dynamics models to simulate the number of COVID-19 and influenza infections in different scenarios in a hypothetical city of 100,000 people. By comparing the infections of COVID-19 and influenza in different scenarios, the impact of the effectiveness of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on disease trends can be calculated. We have divided the NPIs into three levels according to the degree of restriction on social activities (including entertainment venues, conventions, offices, restaurants, public transport, etc.), with social controls becoming progressively stricter from level 1 to level 3.ResultsIn the simulated scenario where susceptible individuals were vaccinated with three doses of COVID-19 coronaVac vaccine, the peak number of severe cases was 26.57% lower than that in the unvaccinated scenario, and the peak number of infection cases was reduced by 10.16%. In the scenario with level three NPIs, the peak number of severe cases was reduced by 7.79% and 15.43%, and the peak number of infection cases was reduced by 12.67% and 28.28%, respectively, compared with the scenarios with NPIs intensity of level 2 and level 1. For the influenza, the peak number of severe cases in the scenario where the entire population were vaccinated was 89.85%, lower than that in the unvaccinated scenario, and the peak number of infections dropped by 79.89%.ConclusionThe effectiveness of COVID-19 coronaVac vaccine for preventing severe outcomes is better than preventing infection; for the prevention and control of influenza, we recommend influenza vaccination as a priority over strict NPIs in the long term.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.973088/fullCOVID-19 pandemicseasonal influenzanon-pharmaceutical interventionsvaccinetransmission dynamics model |
| spellingShingle | Yinchang Chen Zhende Wang Feng Li Jingyu Ma Jie Zhang Yunpeng Chen Ting Zhang Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness Frontiers in Public Health COVID-19 pandemic seasonal influenza non-pharmaceutical interventions vaccine transmission dynamics model |
| title | Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness |
| title_full | Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness |
| title_short | Comparison of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness |
| title_sort | comparison of covid 19 and seasonal influenza under different intensities of non pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine effectiveness |
| topic | COVID-19 pandemic seasonal influenza non-pharmaceutical interventions vaccine transmission dynamics model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.973088/full |
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