| Summary: | <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Visceral adiposity index (VAI) has recently been developed based on waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TGs), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). We examined predictive performances for incident diabetes of the VAI per se and as compared to the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants free of diabetes at baseline with at least one follow-up examination (5,964) were included for the current study. Weibull regression models were developed for interval-censored survival data. Absolute and relative integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) and cut-point-based and cut-point-free net reclassification improvement index (NRI) were used as measures of predictive ability for incident diabetes added by VAI, as compared to the MetS and WHtR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual incidence rate of diabetes was 0.85 per 1000 person. Mean VAI was 3.06 (95%CIs 2.99-3.13). Diabetes risk factors levels increased in stepwise fashion across VAI quintiles. Risk gradient between the highest and lowest quintile of VAI was 4.5 (95%CIs 3.0-6.9). VAI significantly improved predictive ability of the MetS. The relative IDI and cut-point free NRI for predictive ability added to MetS by VAI were 30.3% (95%CIs 18.8-41.8%) and 30.7% (95%CIs 20.8-40.7%), respectively. WHtR, outperformed VAI with cut-point-free NRI of 24.6% (95%CIs 14.1-35.2%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In conclusion, although VAI could be a prognostic tool for incident diabetes events, gathering information on its components (WC, BMI, TGs, and HDL-C) is unlikely to improve the prediction ability beyond what could be achieved by the simply assessable and commonly available information on WHtR.</p>
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