Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya

High mortality poses a serious threat to sustainable conservation of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana). Using detected carcass data collected by the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) during 1992-2017, we analyze temporal and spatial variation in elephant mortality in Kenya. We investigate the maj...

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Main Authors: Joseph M. Mukeka, Joseph O. Ogutu, Erustus Kanga, Hans-Peter Piepho, Eivin Røskaft
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-09-01
Series:Frontiers in Conservation Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2022.975682/full
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author Joseph M. Mukeka
Joseph M. Mukeka
Joseph O. Ogutu
Erustus Kanga
Hans-Peter Piepho
Eivin Røskaft
author_facet Joseph M. Mukeka
Joseph M. Mukeka
Joseph O. Ogutu
Erustus Kanga
Hans-Peter Piepho
Eivin Røskaft
author_sort Joseph M. Mukeka
collection DOAJ
description High mortality poses a serious threat to sustainable conservation of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana). Using detected carcass data collected by the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) during 1992-2017, we analyze temporal and spatial variation in elephant mortality in Kenya. We investigate the major mortality causes and means used to kill elephants, carcass category, tusk recovery status, variation in mortality with elephant age and sex classes, differences between inside and outside protected areas (PAs), the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE) and the overall mortality rate (MR — the number of dead/number of live elephants in a given year). In total 9,182 elephant deaths were recorded during the 26 years. Elephant mortality increased over time and was attributed primarily to natural (33.1%) and human-related causes, particularly ivory poaching (31.5%) and human-elephant conflicts (19.9%). Elephant mortality varied across Kenya’s 47 counties in correspondence with variation in elephant population size and was the highest in the leading elephant range counties of Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Samburu and Meru. Mortality was higher for males and adults and outside the protected areas. Most elephant carcasses had tusks (75.1%) but a few did not (12.5%). Yearly PIKE values peaked in 2012, the year with the highest poaching levels in Kenya during 1992-2017. MR increased throughout 1992-2017. Temporal variation in elephant mortality probability was significantly influenced by human and livestock population densities, average annual maximum temperature and total annual rainfall and the strength of these influences varied across the seven leading elephant range counties of Kenya. Natural processes are increasingly contributing to elephant mortality likely due to climate change and the associated food and water stress, exacerbated by contracting range. Enhancing anti-poaching and strategies for mitigating climate change impacts and human-elephant conflict and reducing range contraction while sustaining habitat connectivity can help reduce mortality and promote elephant conservation. Strengthening enforcement of international wildlife laws can further reduce illegal trade in tusks and killing of elephants.
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spelling doaj.art-15b67ba4c65e45c6a525deb3008052a42022-12-22T03:47:06ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Conservation Science2673-611X2022-09-01310.3389/fcosc.2022.975682975682Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in KenyaJoseph M. Mukeka0Joseph M. Mukeka1Joseph O. Ogutu2Erustus Kanga3Hans-Peter Piepho4Eivin Røskaft5Department of Biology, NTNU Gløshaugen, Trondheim, NorwayWildlife Resource Centre and Information Management, Wildlife Research and Training Institute, Naivasha, KenyaUniversity of Hohenheim, Institute of Crop Science, Biostatistics Unit, Stuttgart, GermanyState Department for Wildlife, Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife, Nairobi, KenyaUniversity of Hohenheim, Institute of Crop Science, Biostatistics Unit, Stuttgart, GermanyDepartment of Biology, NTNU Gløshaugen, Trondheim, NorwayHigh mortality poses a serious threat to sustainable conservation of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana). Using detected carcass data collected by the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) during 1992-2017, we analyze temporal and spatial variation in elephant mortality in Kenya. We investigate the major mortality causes and means used to kill elephants, carcass category, tusk recovery status, variation in mortality with elephant age and sex classes, differences between inside and outside protected areas (PAs), the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE) and the overall mortality rate (MR — the number of dead/number of live elephants in a given year). In total 9,182 elephant deaths were recorded during the 26 years. Elephant mortality increased over time and was attributed primarily to natural (33.1%) and human-related causes, particularly ivory poaching (31.5%) and human-elephant conflicts (19.9%). Elephant mortality varied across Kenya’s 47 counties in correspondence with variation in elephant population size and was the highest in the leading elephant range counties of Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Samburu and Meru. Mortality was higher for males and adults and outside the protected areas. Most elephant carcasses had tusks (75.1%) but a few did not (12.5%). Yearly PIKE values peaked in 2012, the year with the highest poaching levels in Kenya during 1992-2017. MR increased throughout 1992-2017. Temporal variation in elephant mortality probability was significantly influenced by human and livestock population densities, average annual maximum temperature and total annual rainfall and the strength of these influences varied across the seven leading elephant range counties of Kenya. Natural processes are increasingly contributing to elephant mortality likely due to climate change and the associated food and water stress, exacerbated by contracting range. Enhancing anti-poaching and strategies for mitigating climate change impacts and human-elephant conflict and reducing range contraction while sustaining habitat connectivity can help reduce mortality and promote elephant conservation. Strengthening enforcement of international wildlife laws can further reduce illegal trade in tusks and killing of elephants.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2022.975682/fullelephant ivory poachinghuman-elephant conflictmortality probabilitymortality rateProportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE)climate change
spellingShingle Joseph M. Mukeka
Joseph M. Mukeka
Joseph O. Ogutu
Erustus Kanga
Hans-Peter Piepho
Eivin Røskaft
Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya
Frontiers in Conservation Science
elephant ivory poaching
human-elephant conflict
mortality probability
mortality rate
Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE)
climate change
title Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya
title_full Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya
title_fullStr Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya
title_full_unstemmed Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya
title_short Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya
title_sort long term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in kenya
topic elephant ivory poaching
human-elephant conflict
mortality probability
mortality rate
Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE)
climate change
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2022.975682/full
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