Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development
Abstract Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) leads to 600,000 deaths and 600 million cases of pharyngitis annually. Although long a promising target for vaccine development, how much funding should be allocated to develop a Strep A vaccine is unclear. We aim to calculate the optimal amount of global spe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-04-01
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| Series: | npj Vaccines |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-023-00646-6 |
| _version_ | 1827608156165898240 |
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| author | Daniel Tortorice Maddalena Ferranna David E. Bloom |
| author_facet | Daniel Tortorice Maddalena Ferranna David E. Bloom |
| author_sort | Daniel Tortorice |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) leads to 600,000 deaths and 600 million cases of pharyngitis annually. Although long a promising target for vaccine development, how much funding should be allocated to develop a Strep A vaccine is unclear. We aim to calculate the optimal amount of global spending for Strep A vaccine development, the resulting benefits, and the social rate of return on this spending. We develop a model of optimal spending, from a global societal perspective, on research and development (R&D) for vaccines and treatments. The model takes as inputs total harm from the disease, the probability an R&D project succeeds, the cost of a project, and the fraction of total harm a success alleviates. Based on these inputs the model outputs an optimal amount of spending and a rate of return. We calibrate the model for Strep A. Optimal spending is estimated to be 2020 USD33 billion. This spending leads to 2020 USD1.63 trillion in benefits and a real return of 22.3% per year for thirty years. Sensitivity shows an optimal spending range of 15.9 billion to 58.5 billion, a benefits range of 1.6 trillion to 37.9 trillion, and a return range of 18.0–48.2%. Investment in a Strep A vaccine could create enormous benefits for comparatively little cost. It represents one of the highest return uses of public spending. Policy can promote Strep A vaccine development through direct funding of projects and by promoting financial mechanisms that allow the private sector to diversify its R&D investment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:06:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-15ba3483ee4441feb7c1d1c784d34523 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2059-0105 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:06:58Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-15ba3483ee4441feb7c1d1c784d345232023-12-03T09:29:40ZengNature Portfolionpj Vaccines2059-01052023-04-01811810.1038/s41541-023-00646-6Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and developmentDaniel Tortorice0Maddalena Ferranna1David E. Bloom2Department of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy CrossDepartment of Pharmaceutical and Health Economics, University of Southern California School of PharmacyDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public HealthAbstract Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) leads to 600,000 deaths and 600 million cases of pharyngitis annually. Although long a promising target for vaccine development, how much funding should be allocated to develop a Strep A vaccine is unclear. We aim to calculate the optimal amount of global spending for Strep A vaccine development, the resulting benefits, and the social rate of return on this spending. We develop a model of optimal spending, from a global societal perspective, on research and development (R&D) for vaccines and treatments. The model takes as inputs total harm from the disease, the probability an R&D project succeeds, the cost of a project, and the fraction of total harm a success alleviates. Based on these inputs the model outputs an optimal amount of spending and a rate of return. We calibrate the model for Strep A. Optimal spending is estimated to be 2020 USD33 billion. This spending leads to 2020 USD1.63 trillion in benefits and a real return of 22.3% per year for thirty years. Sensitivity shows an optimal spending range of 15.9 billion to 58.5 billion, a benefits range of 1.6 trillion to 37.9 trillion, and a return range of 18.0–48.2%. Investment in a Strep A vaccine could create enormous benefits for comparatively little cost. It represents one of the highest return uses of public spending. Policy can promote Strep A vaccine development through direct funding of projects and by promoting financial mechanisms that allow the private sector to diversify its R&D investment.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-023-00646-6 |
| spellingShingle | Daniel Tortorice Maddalena Ferranna David E. Bloom Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development npj Vaccines |
| title | Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development |
| title_full | Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development |
| title_fullStr | Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development |
| title_short | Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development |
| title_sort | optimal global spending for group a streptococcus vaccine research and development |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-023-00646-6 |
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