Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response
Many countries rely on regional climate model (RCM) projections to quantify the impacts of climate change and to design their adaptation plans accordingly. In several European regions, RCMs project a smaller temperature increase than global climate models (GCMs), which is hypothesised to be due to d...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4949 |
| _version_ | 1797747976407351296 |
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| author | Clemens Schwingshackl Edouard L Davin Martin Hirschi Silje Lund Sørland Richard Wartenburger Sonia I Seneviratne |
| author_facet | Clemens Schwingshackl Edouard L Davin Martin Hirschi Silje Lund Sørland Richard Wartenburger Sonia I Seneviratne |
| author_sort | Clemens Schwingshackl |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many countries rely on regional climate model (RCM) projections to quantify the impacts of climate change and to design their adaptation plans accordingly. In several European regions, RCMs project a smaller temperature increase than global climate models (GCMs), which is hypothesised to be due to discrepant representations of topography, cloud processes, or aerosol forcing in RCMs and GCMs. Additionally, RCMs do generally not consider the vegetation response to elevated atmospheric CO _2 concentrations; a process which is, however, included in most GCMs. Plants adapt to higher CO _2 concentrations by closing their stomata, which can lead to reduced transpiration with concomitant surface warming, in particular, during temperature extremes. Here we show that embedding plant physiological responses to elevated CO _2 concentrations in an RCM leads to significantly higher projected extreme temperatures in Europe. Annual maximum temperatures rise additionally by about 0.6 K (0.1 K in southern, 1.2 K in northern Europe) by 2070–2099, explaining about 67% of the stronger annual maximum temperature increase in GCMs compared to RCMs. Missing plant physiological CO _2 responses thus strongly contribute to the underestimation of temperature trends in RCMs. The need for robust climate change assessments calls for a comprehensive implementation of this process in RCM land surface schemes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-15fb9e2039fc4845825498d67f655579 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:19Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-15fb9e2039fc4845825498d67f6555792023-08-09T14:44:14ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-01141111401910.1088/1748-9326/ab4949Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 responseClemens Schwingshackl0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4048-3011Edouard L Davin1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3322-9330Martin Hirschi2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9154-756XSilje Lund Sørland3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1537-0851Richard Wartenburger4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4470-5080Sonia I Seneviratne5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9528-2917Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Now at Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Oslo, NorwayInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandMany countries rely on regional climate model (RCM) projections to quantify the impacts of climate change and to design their adaptation plans accordingly. In several European regions, RCMs project a smaller temperature increase than global climate models (GCMs), which is hypothesised to be due to discrepant representations of topography, cloud processes, or aerosol forcing in RCMs and GCMs. Additionally, RCMs do generally not consider the vegetation response to elevated atmospheric CO _2 concentrations; a process which is, however, included in most GCMs. Plants adapt to higher CO _2 concentrations by closing their stomata, which can lead to reduced transpiration with concomitant surface warming, in particular, during temperature extremes. Here we show that embedding plant physiological responses to elevated CO _2 concentrations in an RCM leads to significantly higher projected extreme temperatures in Europe. Annual maximum temperatures rise additionally by about 0.6 K (0.1 K in southern, 1.2 K in northern Europe) by 2070–2099, explaining about 67% of the stronger annual maximum temperature increase in GCMs compared to RCMs. Missing plant physiological CO _2 responses thus strongly contribute to the underestimation of temperature trends in RCMs. The need for robust climate change assessments calls for a comprehensive implementation of this process in RCM land surface schemes.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4949plant physiologyCO2 effectevapotranspirationnear-surface air temperatureclimate changeregional climate modelling |
| spellingShingle | Clemens Schwingshackl Edouard L Davin Martin Hirschi Silje Lund Sørland Richard Wartenburger Sonia I Seneviratne Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response Environmental Research Letters plant physiology CO2 effect evapotranspiration near-surface air temperature climate change regional climate modelling |
| title | Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response |
| title_full | Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response |
| title_fullStr | Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response |
| title_short | Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response |
| title_sort | regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological co2 response |
| topic | plant physiology CO2 effect evapotranspiration near-surface air temperature climate change regional climate modelling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4949 |
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