ALGERIAN NORTHWESTERN SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION BASED ON THE MARKOV MODEL
The main aim of this paper is to develop a markovienne model for the evaluation of seismic hazard in the north-western part of Algeria. A region that accommodates from moderate to strong seismic activity (ML ≥ 2.5). This work is an attempt to conceive a stochastic model of the earthquake occurrences...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Zagreb
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Rudarsko-geološko-naftni Zbornik |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/315612 |
| Summary: | The main aim of this paper is to develop a markovienne model for the evaluation of seismic hazard in the north-western part of Algeria. A region that accommodates from moderate to strong seismic activity (ML ≥ 2.5). This work is an attempt to conceive a stochastic model of the earthquake occurrences in order to assess the seismic hazard based on the use of a discrete time Markov chain with a finite state model. The presented model is applied on a complete data sample comprising most of the earthquakes that occurred in the Algerian northwestern area located between latitudes (34°N, 37°N) and longitudes (2°W, 3°E) since 1928 up to now (2018). The Markov chain is built over a homogeneous and completed catalogue, then the transition probability matrix of the chain is used to simulate the occurrences of the earthquakes in the coming decades. The results are compared to a classic Poisson model. |
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| ISSN: | 0353-4529 1849-0409 |