Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000566 |
| _version_ | 1818461960798208000 |
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| author | C. Jessica E. Metcalf Soa Fy Andriamandimby Rachel E. Baker Emma E. Glennon Katie Hampson T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Petra Klepac Amy Wesolowski |
| author_facet | C. Jessica E. Metcalf Soa Fy Andriamandimby Rachel E. Baker Emma E. Glennon Katie Hampson T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Petra Klepac Amy Wesolowski |
| author_sort | C. Jessica E. Metcalf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions on this question, but there are a number of open challenges, particularly given unknown aspects of the pathogen biology, the effectiveness and feasibility of interventions, and the intersecting political, economic, sociological and behavioural complexities for a novel pathogen. In this overview, we detail how models might identify directions for better leveraging or expanding the scope of data available on the pathogen trajectory, for bounding the theoretical context of emergence relative to prospects for elimination, and for framing the larger economic, behavioural and social context that will influence policy decisions and the pathogen’s outcome. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T23:54:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1620b4d9776949eaa56b77cee144bea0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T23:54:27Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-1620b4d9776949eaa56b77cee144bea02022-12-21T22:43:09ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652021-12-0137100507Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogensC. Jessica E. Metcalf0Soa Fy Andriamandimby1Rachel E. Baker2Emma E. Glennon3Katie Hampson4T. Deirdre Hollingsworth5Petra Klepac6Amy Wesolowski7Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, USA; Corresponding author at: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, MadagascarDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USADisease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UKInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UKBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, UKLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UKJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USAWhen a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions on this question, but there are a number of open challenges, particularly given unknown aspects of the pathogen biology, the effectiveness and feasibility of interventions, and the intersecting political, economic, sociological and behavioural complexities for a novel pathogen. In this overview, we detail how models might identify directions for better leveraging or expanding the scope of data available on the pathogen trajectory, for bounding the theoretical context of emergence relative to prospects for elimination, and for framing the larger economic, behavioural and social context that will influence policy decisions and the pathogen’s outcome.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000566EndemicEpidemicMathematical modelEliminationEmergence |
| spellingShingle | C. Jessica E. Metcalf Soa Fy Andriamandimby Rachel E. Baker Emma E. Glennon Katie Hampson T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Petra Klepac Amy Wesolowski Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens Epidemics Endemic Epidemic Mathematical model Elimination Emergence |
| title | Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens |
| title_full | Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens |
| title_fullStr | Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens |
| title_full_unstemmed | Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens |
| title_short | Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens |
| title_sort | challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens |
| topic | Endemic Epidemic Mathematical model Elimination Emergence |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000566 |
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