Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is spreading rapidly throughout the world, causing many deaths and severe economic damage. It is believed that hot and humid conditions do not favor the novel coronavirus, yet this is still under debate due to many uncertainties asso...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | New Journal of Physics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/abed0d |
| _version_ | 1797750192290660352 |
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| author | Eitan E Asher Yosef Ashkenazy Shlomo Havlin Alon Sela |
| author_facet | Eitan E Asher Yosef Ashkenazy Shlomo Havlin Alon Sela |
| author_sort | Eitan E Asher |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is spreading rapidly throughout the world, causing many deaths and severe economic damage. It is believed that hot and humid conditions do not favor the novel coronavirus, yet this is still under debate due to many uncertainties associated with the COVID-19 data. Here we propose surrogate data tests to examine the preference of this virus to spread under different climate conditions. We find, by mainly studying the relative number of COVID-19 deaths, that the disease is significantly (above the 95% confidence level) more common when the temperature is ∼10 °C, the relative humidity is ∼60%, the specific humidity is ∼5 g kg ^−1 , and the ultraviolet radiation is less than ∼50 kJ m ^−2 (per hour). We also find, but less significantly, that the relative number of COVID-19 deaths is high when the wind is weak and low when the wind is strong. The results are supported based on global and regional data, spanning the time period from January to December 2020. The COVID-19 data includes the daily reported new cases and the daily deaths; for both, the population size is either taken into account or ignored. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:29:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-16738eb1f12147c68eb31d3d47d36d64 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1367-2630 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:29:10Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | New Journal of Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-16738eb1f12147c68eb31d3d47d36d642023-08-08T15:33:55ZengIOP PublishingNew Journal of Physics1367-26302021-01-0123303304410.1088/1367-2630/abed0dOptimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiationEitan E Asher0Yosef Ashkenazy1Shlomo Havlin2Alon Sela3Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University , 52900 Ramat-Gan, IsraelDepartment of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, The Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev , 84990 Midreshet Ben-Gurion, IsraelDepartment of Physics, Bar-Ilan University , 52900 Ramat-Gan, IsraelDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Ariel University , 4070000, Ariel, IsraelThe COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is spreading rapidly throughout the world, causing many deaths and severe economic damage. It is believed that hot and humid conditions do not favor the novel coronavirus, yet this is still under debate due to many uncertainties associated with the COVID-19 data. Here we propose surrogate data tests to examine the preference of this virus to spread under different climate conditions. We find, by mainly studying the relative number of COVID-19 deaths, that the disease is significantly (above the 95% confidence level) more common when the temperature is ∼10 °C, the relative humidity is ∼60%, the specific humidity is ∼5 g kg ^−1 , and the ultraviolet radiation is less than ∼50 kJ m ^−2 (per hour). We also find, but less significantly, that the relative number of COVID-19 deaths is high when the wind is weak and low when the wind is strong. The results are supported based on global and regional data, spanning the time period from January to December 2020. The COVID-19 data includes the daily reported new cases and the daily deaths; for both, the population size is either taken into account or ignored.https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/abed0dCOVID-19temperaturehumidityUV radiationwind speedsurrogate data tests |
| spellingShingle | Eitan E Asher Yosef Ashkenazy Shlomo Havlin Alon Sela Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation New Journal of Physics COVID-19 temperature humidity UV radiation wind speed surrogate data tests |
| title | Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation |
| title_full | Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation |
| title_fullStr | Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation |
| title_short | Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation |
| title_sort | optimal covid 19 infection spread under low temperature dry air and low uv radiation |
| topic | COVID-19 temperature humidity UV radiation wind speed surrogate data tests |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/abed0d |
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