Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events
Abstract Auroral zones are regions where, in an average sense, aurorae due to solar activity are most likely spotted. Their shape and, similarly, the geographical locations most vulnerable to extreme space weather events (which we term ‘danger zones’) are modulated by Earth’s time-dependent internal...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25704-2 |
| _version_ | 1797945929035153408 |
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| author | Stefano Maffei Joseph W. B. Eggington Philip W. Livermore Jonathan E. Mound Sabrina Sanchez Jonathan P. Eastwood Mervyn P. Freeman |
| author_facet | Stefano Maffei Joseph W. B. Eggington Philip W. Livermore Jonathan E. Mound Sabrina Sanchez Jonathan P. Eastwood Mervyn P. Freeman |
| author_sort | Stefano Maffei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Auroral zones are regions where, in an average sense, aurorae due to solar activity are most likely spotted. Their shape and, similarly, the geographical locations most vulnerable to extreme space weather events (which we term ‘danger zones’) are modulated by Earth’s time-dependent internal magnetic field whose structure changes on yearly to decadal timescales. Strategies for mitigating ground-based space weather impacts over the next few decades can benefit from accurate forecasts of this evolution. Existing auroral zone forecasts use simplified assumptions of geomagnetic field variations. By harnessing the capability of modern geomagnetic field forecasts based on the dynamics of Earth’s core we estimate the evolution of the auroral zones and of the danger zones over the next 50 years. Our results predict that space-weather related risk will not change significantly in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Mid-to-high latitude cities such as Edinburgh, Copenhagen and Dunedin will remain in high-risk regions. However, northward change of the auroral and danger zones over North America will likely cause urban centres such as Edmonton and Labrador City to be exposed by 2070 to the potential impact of severe solar activity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:03:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-16a82ae4957f4065b00b32a60d6e8411 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:03:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-16a82ae4957f4065b00b32a60d6e84112023-01-22T12:09:03ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-01-0113111110.1038/s41598-022-25704-2Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather eventsStefano Maffei0Joseph W. B. Eggington1Philip W. Livermore2Jonathan E. Mound3Sabrina Sanchez4Jonathan P. Eastwood5Mervyn P. Freeman6Earth and Planetary Magnetism Group, Institute of Geophysics, ETH ZurichBlackett Laboratory, Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College LondonSchool of Earth and Environment, University of LeedsSchool of Earth and Environment, University of LeedsInstitut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université Paris-DiderotBlackett Laboratory, Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College LondonBritish Antarctic SurveyAbstract Auroral zones are regions where, in an average sense, aurorae due to solar activity are most likely spotted. Their shape and, similarly, the geographical locations most vulnerable to extreme space weather events (which we term ‘danger zones’) are modulated by Earth’s time-dependent internal magnetic field whose structure changes on yearly to decadal timescales. Strategies for mitigating ground-based space weather impacts over the next few decades can benefit from accurate forecasts of this evolution. Existing auroral zone forecasts use simplified assumptions of geomagnetic field variations. By harnessing the capability of modern geomagnetic field forecasts based on the dynamics of Earth’s core we estimate the evolution of the auroral zones and of the danger zones over the next 50 years. Our results predict that space-weather related risk will not change significantly in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Mid-to-high latitude cities such as Edinburgh, Copenhagen and Dunedin will remain in high-risk regions. However, northward change of the auroral and danger zones over North America will likely cause urban centres such as Edmonton and Labrador City to be exposed by 2070 to the potential impact of severe solar activity.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25704-2 |
| spellingShingle | Stefano Maffei Joseph W. B. Eggington Philip W. Livermore Jonathan E. Mound Sabrina Sanchez Jonathan P. Eastwood Mervyn P. Freeman Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events Scientific Reports |
| title | Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events |
| title_full | Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events |
| title_fullStr | Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events |
| title_short | Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events |
| title_sort | climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25704-2 |
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