How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France.
How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters' reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 20...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0297432&type=printable |
| _version_ | 1797248458939170816 |
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| author | Davide Morisi Héloïse Cloléry Guillaume Kon Kam King Max Schaub |
| author_facet | Davide Morisi Héloïse Cloléry Guillaume Kon Kam King Max Schaub |
| author_sort | Davide Morisi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters' reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T20:14:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-16a93e7895b84dfaa657b8337c45fcee |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T20:14:55Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-16a93e7895b84dfaa657b8337c45fcee2024-03-23T05:30:58ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032024-01-01193e029743210.1371/journal.pone.0297432How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France.Davide MorisiHéloïse CloléryGuillaume Kon Kam KingMax SchaubHow do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters' reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0297432&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Davide Morisi Héloïse Cloléry Guillaume Kon Kam King Max Schaub How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France. PLoS ONE |
| title | How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France. |
| title_full | How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France. |
| title_fullStr | How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France. |
| title_full_unstemmed | How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France. |
| title_short | How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France. |
| title_sort | how covid 19 affects voting for incumbents evidence from local elections in france |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0297432&type=printable |
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