Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes
Historical records of major earthquakes in the northwestern Indian Ocean along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) indicate high potential tsunami hazards for coastal regions of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and western India. There are fast-growing and populous cities and ports that are economically important...
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MDPI AG
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
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| author | Payam Momeni Katsuichiro Goda Mohammad Heidarzadeh Jinhui Qin |
| author_facet | Payam Momeni Katsuichiro Goda Mohammad Heidarzadeh Jinhui Qin |
| author_sort | Payam Momeni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Historical records of major earthquakes in the northwestern Indian Ocean along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) indicate high potential tsunami hazards for coastal regions of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and western India. There are fast-growing and populous cities and ports that are economically important, such as Chabahar (Iran), Gwadar (Pakistan), Muscat (Oman), and Mumbai (India). In this study, we assess the tsunami hazard of the 1945 MSZ event (fatalities ≈300 people) using stochastic earthquake rupture models of Mw 8.1–8.3 by considering uncertainties related to rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity. To quantify the uncertainty of earthquake source characteristics in tsunami hazard analysis, 1000 stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated via a stochastic source modeling approach. There are main objectives of this study: (1) developing stochastic earthquake slip models for the MSZ, (2) comparing results of the simulation with the existing observations of the 1945 event, and (3) evaluating the effect of uncertain fault geometry and earthquake slip based on simulated near-shore wave profiles. The 1945 Makran earthquake is focused upon by comparing model predictions with existing observations, consisting of far-field tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges in Karachi and Mumbai and coseismic deformation along the Pakistani coast. The results identify the source model that matches the existing observations of the 1945 Makran event best among the stochastic sources. The length, width, mean slip, and maximum slip of the identified source model are 270 km, 130 km, 2.9 m, and 19.3 m, respectively. Moreover, the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami heights along the coastline to the location of a large-slip area is highlighted. The maximum heights of the tsunami and coseismic deformation results at Ormara are in the range of 0.3–7.0 m and −2.7 to 1.1 m, respectively, for the 1000 stochastic source models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:56:35Z |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:56:35Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
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| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-16c4bc7a45704af7a03be257b1cb4c7f2023-11-20T20:33:19ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632020-11-01101145210.3390/geosciences10110452Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 EarthquakesPayam Momeni0Katsuichiro Goda1Mohammad Heidarzadeh2Jinhui Qin3Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 5B7, CanadaDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 5B7, CanadaDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Brunel University, London UB8 3PH, UKSHARCNET, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 5B7, CanadaHistorical records of major earthquakes in the northwestern Indian Ocean along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) indicate high potential tsunami hazards for coastal regions of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and western India. There are fast-growing and populous cities and ports that are economically important, such as Chabahar (Iran), Gwadar (Pakistan), Muscat (Oman), and Mumbai (India). In this study, we assess the tsunami hazard of the 1945 MSZ event (fatalities ≈300 people) using stochastic earthquake rupture models of Mw 8.1–8.3 by considering uncertainties related to rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity. To quantify the uncertainty of earthquake source characteristics in tsunami hazard analysis, 1000 stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated via a stochastic source modeling approach. There are main objectives of this study: (1) developing stochastic earthquake slip models for the MSZ, (2) comparing results of the simulation with the existing observations of the 1945 event, and (3) evaluating the effect of uncertain fault geometry and earthquake slip based on simulated near-shore wave profiles. The 1945 Makran earthquake is focused upon by comparing model predictions with existing observations, consisting of far-field tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges in Karachi and Mumbai and coseismic deformation along the Pakistani coast. The results identify the source model that matches the existing observations of the 1945 Makran event best among the stochastic sources. The length, width, mean slip, and maximum slip of the identified source model are 270 km, 130 km, 2.9 m, and 19.3 m, respectively. Moreover, the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami heights along the coastline to the location of a large-slip area is highlighted. The maximum heights of the tsunami and coseismic deformation results at Ormara are in the range of 0.3–7.0 m and −2.7 to 1.1 m, respectively, for the 1000 stochastic source models.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/10/11/452tsunami hazardMakran subduction zonestochastic source model |
| spellingShingle | Payam Momeni Katsuichiro Goda Mohammad Heidarzadeh Jinhui Qin Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes Geosciences tsunami hazard Makran subduction zone stochastic source model |
| title | Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes |
| title_full | Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes |
| title_fullStr | Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes |
| title_short | Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes |
| title_sort | stochastic analysis of tsunami hazard of the 1945 makran subduction zone mw 8 1 8 3 earthquakes |
| topic | tsunami hazard Makran subduction zone stochastic source model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/10/11/452 |
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