Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
Ecological security plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of urban agglomeration, where high population and economic density brings great pressure on eco-system. This paper selected six indicators to build an ecological security index (ESI), and constructed a system dynamics (SD) model...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21002788 |
| _version_ | 1818843672345575424 |
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| author | Hongjie Wang Chao Bao |
| author_facet | Hongjie Wang Chao Bao |
| author_sort | Hongjie Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ecological security plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of urban agglomeration, where high population and economic density brings great pressure on eco-system. This paper selected six indicators to build an ecological security index (ESI), and constructed a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate and forecast its future scenarios. It aims at establishing the nexus among the socio-economic and ecological indicators, and identifying the key driving factors of ESI. Taking Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) as a case, this paper assessed the historical situation in 2000–2015 and forecasted the future scenarios in 2016–2030. The results show that, the ESI of BTH decreased from 0.665 in 2000 to 0.648 in 2015. It will decrease to 0.632 in 2030 if the existing development mode continues. Though it belonged to the higher security level all along, obvious disparities will exist in 13 cities in BTH according to the spatiotemporal variations of ESI and its six indicators. Low guarantee degree of eco-water use and fragile ecosystem will be the primary risks of BTH all along. As the existing development mode has considered the socio-economic benefits and ecological protection, it is rational to continue for the whole BTH. However, especially in the southeast cities, the ecological development mode should be strengthened. This paper provides a framework to assess the current conditions and forecast the future scenarios of ecological security for urban agglomerations. It also might help to explore the coupling mechanism between human and ecological system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T05:01:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-16e7d2189bec482582185f57d2e19ac6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T05:01:35Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-16e7d2189bec482582185f57d2e19ac62022-12-21T20:35:03ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2021-06-01125107613Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerationHongjie Wang0Chao Bao1Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding author at: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.Ecological security plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of urban agglomeration, where high population and economic density brings great pressure on eco-system. This paper selected six indicators to build an ecological security index (ESI), and constructed a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate and forecast its future scenarios. It aims at establishing the nexus among the socio-economic and ecological indicators, and identifying the key driving factors of ESI. Taking Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) as a case, this paper assessed the historical situation in 2000–2015 and forecasted the future scenarios in 2016–2030. The results show that, the ESI of BTH decreased from 0.665 in 2000 to 0.648 in 2015. It will decrease to 0.632 in 2030 if the existing development mode continues. Though it belonged to the higher security level all along, obvious disparities will exist in 13 cities in BTH according to the spatiotemporal variations of ESI and its six indicators. Low guarantee degree of eco-water use and fragile ecosystem will be the primary risks of BTH all along. As the existing development mode has considered the socio-economic benefits and ecological protection, it is rational to continue for the whole BTH. However, especially in the southeast cities, the ecological development mode should be strengthened. This paper provides a framework to assess the current conditions and forecast the future scenarios of ecological security for urban agglomerations. It also might help to explore the coupling mechanism between human and ecological system.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21002788Ecological security index (ESI)System dynamics modelComplex nexusScenario simulationBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) |
| spellingShingle | Hongjie Wang Chao Bao Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration Ecological Indicators Ecological security index (ESI) System dynamics model Complex nexus Scenario simulation Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) |
| title | Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration |
| title_full | Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration |
| title_fullStr | Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration |
| title_short | Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration |
| title_sort | scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in beijing tianjin hebei urban agglomeration |
| topic | Ecological security index (ESI) System dynamics model Complex nexus Scenario simulation Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21002788 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hongjiewang scenariomodelingofecologicalsecurityindexusingsystemdynamicsinbeijingtianjinhebeiurbanagglomeration AT chaobao scenariomodelingofecologicalsecurityindexusingsystemdynamicsinbeijingtianjinhebeiurbanagglomeration |