Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response?
Study region: The Thames catchment in southern England, UK. Study focus: Modelling with 124 years of rainfall, potential evaporation (PE), temperature and naturalised flow data. Daily rainfall-runoff flow simulation using current and three historic land cover scenarios to determine the stationarity...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2015-09-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581815000592 |
| _version_ | 1818365101254639616 |
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| author | S.M. Crooks A.L. Kay |
| author_facet | S.M. Crooks A.L. Kay |
| author_sort | S.M. Crooks |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The Thames catchment in southern England, UK.
Study focus: Modelling with 124 years of rainfall, potential evaporation (PE), temperature and naturalised flow data. Daily rainfall-runoff flow simulation using current and three historic land cover scenarios to determine the stationarity of catchment response examined through three time-frames of analysis – annual, seasonal and flow extremes. The criterion of response stationarity is often assumed in climate change impact studies.
New hydrological insights: The generally close correspondence between observed and simulated flows using the same model parameter values for the whole period is indicative of the temporal stability of hydrological processes and catchment response, and the quality of the hydrometric data. Changes that have occurred are a decrease in flood peak response times, typically two to three days pre and post the early 1940s, from change in agricultural practices and channel conveyance, and an increase of about 15% in summer flow from increase in urban land cover between the first decade of the 20th and 21st centuries. The water balance was found to be sensitive to the PE data used, with care needed to avoid discontinuity between two parts of the data record using different methods for calculation. Long-term mean annual rainfall shows little change but contrasting patterns of variation in seasonal rainfall demonstrate a variable climate for which simulated flow is similar to observed flow. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T22:14:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-16e8d179343d4b2fa5a8c2d6b63d68c3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T22:14:54Z |
| publishDate | 2015-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-16e8d179343d4b2fa5a8c2d6b63d68c32022-12-21T23:29:37ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182015-09-014PB17219510.1016/j.ejrh.2015.05.014Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response?S.M. CrooksA.L. KayStudy region: The Thames catchment in southern England, UK. Study focus: Modelling with 124 years of rainfall, potential evaporation (PE), temperature and naturalised flow data. Daily rainfall-runoff flow simulation using current and three historic land cover scenarios to determine the stationarity of catchment response examined through three time-frames of analysis – annual, seasonal and flow extremes. The criterion of response stationarity is often assumed in climate change impact studies. New hydrological insights: The generally close correspondence between observed and simulated flows using the same model parameter values for the whole period is indicative of the temporal stability of hydrological processes and catchment response, and the quality of the hydrometric data. Changes that have occurred are a decrease in flood peak response times, typically two to three days pre and post the early 1940s, from change in agricultural practices and channel conveyance, and an increase of about 15% in summer flow from increase in urban land cover between the first decade of the 20th and 21st centuries. The water balance was found to be sensitive to the PE data used, with care needed to avoid discontinuity between two parts of the data record using different methods for calculation. Long-term mean annual rainfall shows little change but contrasting patterns of variation in seasonal rainfall demonstrate a variable climate for which simulated flow is similar to observed flow.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581815000592Hydrometric data pre-1961Rainfall-runoff modelResponse stationarityFloodsDroughtsLand cover change |
| spellingShingle | S.M. Crooks A.L. Kay Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response? Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Hydrometric data pre-1961 Rainfall-runoff model Response stationarity Floods Droughts Land cover change |
| title | Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response? |
| title_full | Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response? |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response? |
| title_short | Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response? |
| title_sort | simulation of river flow in the thames over 120 years evidence of change in rainfall runoff response |
| topic | Hydrometric data pre-1961 Rainfall-runoff model Response stationarity Floods Droughts Land cover change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581815000592 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT smcrooks simulationofriverflowinthethamesover120yearsevidenceofchangeinrainfallrunoffresponse AT alkay simulationofriverflowinthethamesover120yearsevidenceofchangeinrainfallrunoffresponse |