Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using HEC-HMS model
Awareness of water resources status is essential for the proper management of resources and planning for the future due to the occurrence of climate change in most parts of the world and its impact on different parts of the water cycle. Hence, many studies have been carried out in different regions...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Isfahan University of Technology
2023-09-01
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| Series: | علوم آب و خاک |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-3828-en.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797653599203885056 |
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| author | J. Abedi Koupai A.R. Vahabi |
| author_facet | J. Abedi Koupai A.R. Vahabi |
| author_sort | J. Abedi Koupai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Awareness of water resources status is essential for the proper management of resources and planning for the future due to the occurrence of climate change in most parts of the world and its impact on different parts of the water cycle. Hence, many studies have been carried out in different regions to analyze the effects of climate change on the hydrological process in the coming periods. The present study examined the effects of climate change on surface runoff using the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) in Khomeini Shahr City. The maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation of the upcoming period (2020-2049) were simulated using a weighted average of three models for each of the minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation parameters based on the scenario A2 and B1 (pessimistic and optimistic states, respectively) of the AOGCM-AR4 models. The LARS-WG model was also used to measure the downscaling. The HEC-HMS was used to predict runoff. The effects of climate change in the coming period (2020-2049) compared with the observation period (1971-2000), in the A2 scenario, the minimum and maximum temperatures would increase by 1.1 and 1.6 Degrees Celsius, respectively, and the precipitation would decrease 17.8 percent. In the B1 scenario, the minimum and maximum temperatures would increase by 1.1 and 1.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, and the precipitation would decrease by 13 percent. The results of runoff were different in the six scenarios in the way the most runoff reduction is related to the scenario of fixed land use and scenario A2 (22.2% reduction), and the most increase is related to the scenario of 45% urban growth and scenario B1 (5.8% increase). So, according to increase urban texture in the future and consequently enhance the volume of runoff, this volume of runoff can be used to feed groundwater, irrigate gardens, and green space in the city. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:45:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-16eb35d0f48d4c45b62ee6cd71dfbdda |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2476-3594 2476-5554 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:45:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Isfahan University of Technology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | علوم آب و خاک |
| spelling | doaj.art-16eb35d0f48d4c45b62ee6cd71dfbdda2023-10-22T09:49:48ZfasIsfahan University of Technologyعلوم آب و خاک2476-35942476-55542023-09-012721932Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using HEC-HMS modelJ. Abedi Koupai0A.R. Vahabi1 Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan University of Technology Awareness of water resources status is essential for the proper management of resources and planning for the future due to the occurrence of climate change in most parts of the world and its impact on different parts of the water cycle. Hence, many studies have been carried out in different regions to analyze the effects of climate change on the hydrological process in the coming periods. The present study examined the effects of climate change on surface runoff using the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) in Khomeini Shahr City. The maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation of the upcoming period (2020-2049) were simulated using a weighted average of three models for each of the minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation parameters based on the scenario A2 and B1 (pessimistic and optimistic states, respectively) of the AOGCM-AR4 models. The LARS-WG model was also used to measure the downscaling. The HEC-HMS was used to predict runoff. The effects of climate change in the coming period (2020-2049) compared with the observation period (1971-2000), in the A2 scenario, the minimum and maximum temperatures would increase by 1.1 and 1.6 Degrees Celsius, respectively, and the precipitation would decrease 17.8 percent. In the B1 scenario, the minimum and maximum temperatures would increase by 1.1 and 1.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, and the precipitation would decrease by 13 percent. The results of runoff were different in the six scenarios in the way the most runoff reduction is related to the scenario of fixed land use and scenario A2 (22.2% reduction), and the most increase is related to the scenario of 45% urban growth and scenario B1 (5.8% increase). So, according to increase urban texture in the future and consequently enhance the volume of runoff, this volume of runoff can be used to feed groundwater, irrigate gardens, and green space in the city.http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-3828-en.pdfgeneral atmospheric circulation modelsimulationsurface runofflars-wg |
| spellingShingle | J. Abedi Koupai A.R. Vahabi Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using HEC-HMS model علوم آب و خاک general atmospheric circulation model simulation surface runoff lars-wg |
| title | Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using
HEC-HMS model |
| title_full | Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using
HEC-HMS model |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using
HEC-HMS model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using
HEC-HMS model |
| title_short | Climate Change Assessment Using Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) AOGCM( and Its Effect on Runoff Using
HEC-HMS model |
| title_sort | climate change assessment using atmosphere ocean general circulation model aogcm and its effect on runoff using hec hms model |
| topic | general atmospheric circulation model simulation surface runoff lars-wg |
| url | http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-3828-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jabedikoupai climatechangeassessmentusingatmosphereoceangeneralcirculationmodelaogcmanditseffectonrunoffusinghechmsmodel AT arvahabi climatechangeassessmentusingatmosphereoceangeneralcirculationmodelaogcmanditseffectonrunoffusinghechmsmodel |