Optimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone genesis indices are valuable tools for studying the relationship between large-scale environmental fields and the genesis of tropical cyclones, supporting the identification of future trends of cyclone genesis. However, their formulation is generally derived from simple statistical...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb52a |
| _version_ | 1797844644863672320 |
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| author | Guido Ascenso Leone Cavicchia Enrico Scoccimarro Andrea Castelletti |
| author_facet | Guido Ascenso Leone Cavicchia Enrico Scoccimarro Andrea Castelletti |
| author_sort | Guido Ascenso |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Tropical cyclone genesis indices are valuable tools for studying the relationship between large-scale environmental fields and the genesis of tropical cyclones, supporting the identification of future trends of cyclone genesis. However, their formulation is generally derived from simple statistical models (e.g., multiple linear regression) and are not optimised globally. In this paper, we present a simple framework for optimising genesis indexes given a user-specified trade-off between two performance metrics, which measure how well an index captures the spatial and interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis. We apply the proposed framework to the popular Emanuel and Nolan Genesis Potential Index, yielding new, optimised formulas that correspond to different trade-offs between spatial and interannual variability. Result show that our refined indexes can improve the performance of the Emanuel and Nolan index up to 8% for spatial variability and 16%–22% for interannual variability; this improvement was found to be statistically significant (p < 0.01). Lastly, by analysing the formulas found, we give some insights into the role of the different inputs of the index in maximising one metric or the other. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:25:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-16ef78950cd141b69edf0f3cb5d47c0a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:25:36Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-16ef78950cd141b69edf0f3cb5d47c0a2023-04-18T13:48:20ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-015202100110.1088/2515-7620/acb52aOptimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclonesGuido Ascenso0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9050-9892Leone Cavicchia1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9857-7817Enrico Scoccimarro2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7987-4744Andrea Castelletti3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7923-1498Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano , Milan, ItalyFondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici , Bologna, ItalyFondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici , Bologna, ItalyDepartment of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano , Milan, ItalyTropical cyclone genesis indices are valuable tools for studying the relationship between large-scale environmental fields and the genesis of tropical cyclones, supporting the identification of future trends of cyclone genesis. However, their formulation is generally derived from simple statistical models (e.g., multiple linear regression) and are not optimised globally. In this paper, we present a simple framework for optimising genesis indexes given a user-specified trade-off between two performance metrics, which measure how well an index captures the spatial and interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis. We apply the proposed framework to the popular Emanuel and Nolan Genesis Potential Index, yielding new, optimised formulas that correspond to different trade-offs between spatial and interannual variability. Result show that our refined indexes can improve the performance of the Emanuel and Nolan index up to 8% for spatial variability and 16%–22% for interannual variability; this improvement was found to be statistically significant (p < 0.01). Lastly, by analysing the formulas found, we give some insights into the role of the different inputs of the index in maximising one metric or the other.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb52atropical cyclonesgenesis potential indexgenetic algorithmsENGPINSGA-II |
| spellingShingle | Guido Ascenso Leone Cavicchia Enrico Scoccimarro Andrea Castelletti Optimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones Environmental Research Communications tropical cyclones genesis potential index genetic algorithms ENGPI NSGA-II |
| title | Optimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones |
| title_full | Optimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones |
| title_fullStr | Optimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones |
| title_short | Optimisation-based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones |
| title_sort | optimisation based refinement of genesis indices for tropical cyclones |
| topic | tropical cyclones genesis potential index genetic algorithms ENGPI NSGA-II |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb52a |
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