Capturing Swiss economic confidence
Abstract Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a “Swiss Economic Confidence Index” (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have f...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-024-00120-7 |
| Summary: | Abstract Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a “Swiss Economic Confidence Index” (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have favorable leading properties. Applying simple criteria, we select those surveys from a set of currently more than 250 sentiment indicators. We show that the SEC index provides useful signals on GDP growth in a number of real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercises. |
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| ISSN: | 2235-6282 |