Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids
The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2016-12-01
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| Series: | Cogent Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23311916.2015.1133259 |
| _version_ | 1797719474864914432 |
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| author | Fariborz M. Tehrani |
| author_facet | Fariborz M. Tehrani |
| author_sort | Fariborz M. Tehrani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T09:06:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1714d90f3ee54a92a49e31d357b02b48 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2331-1916 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T09:06:24Z |
| publishDate | 2016-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cogent Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-1714d90f3ee54a92a49e31d357b02b482023-09-02T15:17:03ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Engineering2331-19162016-12-013110.1080/23311916.2015.11332591133259Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bidsFariborz M. Tehrani0California State University, FresnoThe objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23311916.2015.1133259cost estimateestimate reliabilitybid analysiscontingencyconstruction costcompetitive bidnormal distributiontheory of extreme valuesweibull distributionpublic sector procurement |
| spellingShingle | Fariborz M. Tehrani Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids Cogent Engineering cost estimate estimate reliability bid analysis contingency construction cost competitive bid normal distribution theory of extreme values weibull distribution public sector procurement |
| title | Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids |
| title_full | Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids |
| title_fullStr | Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids |
| title_full_unstemmed | Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids |
| title_short | Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids |
| title_sort | engineer s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids |
| topic | cost estimate estimate reliability bid analysis contingency construction cost competitive bid normal distribution theory of extreme values weibull distribution public sector procurement |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23311916.2015.1133259 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fariborzmtehrani engineersestimatereliabilityandstatisticalcharacteristicsofbids |