Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences
Study region: We investigate samples from two Italian regions, i.e. Lazio and Sicily, located in central and south Italy, respectively, and characterized by two diverse climates. Study focus: In engineering practice, the study of maxima daily rainfall values is commonly dealt with light-tailed proba...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581820302457 |
| _version_ | 1818561274193117184 |
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| author | Benedetta Moccia Claudio Mineo Elena Ridolfi Fabio Russo Francesco Napolitano |
| author_facet | Benedetta Moccia Claudio Mineo Elena Ridolfi Fabio Russo Francesco Napolitano |
| author_sort | Benedetta Moccia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: We investigate samples from two Italian regions, i.e. Lazio and Sicily, located in central and south Italy, respectively, and characterized by two diverse climates. Study focus: In engineering practice, the study of maxima daily rainfall values is commonly dealt with light-tailed probability distribution functions, such as the Gumbel. The choice of a distribution rather than another may cause estimation errors of rainfall values associated to specific return periods. Recently, several studies demonstrate that heavy-tailed distributions are preferable for extreme events modelling. Here, we opt for six theoretical probability distribution functions and evaluate their performance in fitting extreme precipitation samples. We select the samples with two common methods, i.e. the Peak-Over-Threshold and the Annual Maxima. We assess the best fitting distribution to the empirical samples of extreme values through the Ratio Mean Square Error Method and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. New hydrological insights for the region: The assessment of the best fitting distribution to daily rainfall of the two different areas investigated here leads to interesting remarks. Despite the diversity of their climate, results suggest that heavy-tailed distributions describe more accurately empirical data rather than light-tailed ones. Therefore, extreme events may have been largely underestimated in the past in both areas. The proposed investigation can prompt the choice of the best fitting probability distribution to evaluate the design hydrological quantities supporting common engineering practice. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:48:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1746f1ea437b4453adef916e0cb3afeb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T00:48:43Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-1746f1ea437b4453adef916e0cb3afeb2022-12-21T23:23:57ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182021-02-0133100771Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferencesBenedetta Moccia0Claudio Mineo1Elena Ridolfi2Fabio Russo3Francesco Napolitano4Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Roma, Italy; Corresponding author.Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Roma, ItalyUppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden; CNDS, Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, 75236 Uppsala, SwedenUniversità degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Roma, ItalyUniversità degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Roma, ItalyStudy region: We investigate samples from two Italian regions, i.e. Lazio and Sicily, located in central and south Italy, respectively, and characterized by two diverse climates. Study focus: In engineering practice, the study of maxima daily rainfall values is commonly dealt with light-tailed probability distribution functions, such as the Gumbel. The choice of a distribution rather than another may cause estimation errors of rainfall values associated to specific return periods. Recently, several studies demonstrate that heavy-tailed distributions are preferable for extreme events modelling. Here, we opt for six theoretical probability distribution functions and evaluate their performance in fitting extreme precipitation samples. We select the samples with two common methods, i.e. the Peak-Over-Threshold and the Annual Maxima. We assess the best fitting distribution to the empirical samples of extreme values through the Ratio Mean Square Error Method and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. New hydrological insights for the region: The assessment of the best fitting distribution to daily rainfall of the two different areas investigated here leads to interesting remarks. Despite the diversity of their climate, results suggest that heavy-tailed distributions describe more accurately empirical data rather than light-tailed ones. Therefore, extreme events may have been largely underestimated in the past in both areas. The proposed investigation can prompt the choice of the best fitting probability distribution to evaluate the design hydrological quantities supporting common engineering practice.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581820302457Daily precipitationExtreme rainfallTail behaviourFitting methodKolmogorov-Smirnov test |
| spellingShingle | Benedetta Moccia Claudio Mineo Elena Ridolfi Fabio Russo Francesco Napolitano Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Daily precipitation Extreme rainfall Tail behaviour Fitting method Kolmogorov-Smirnov test |
| title | Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences |
| title_full | Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences |
| title_fullStr | Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences |
| title_short | Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences |
| title_sort | probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in lazio and sicily italy and design rainfall inferences |
| topic | Daily precipitation Extreme rainfall Tail behaviour Fitting method Kolmogorov-Smirnov test |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581820302457 |
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