| Summary: | The oil industry is historically burdened by different turbulences and
tremors having the significant impact on the market. In order to anticipate
unforeseen and potentially harmful situations, some firms as a part of
their long-term strategic plans pay attention to scenario-based planning,
which is a useful technique for preparation of appropriate strategy and responses
to potential unforeseen emergencies. Scenario planning is used
for a detailed analysis of the current situation in the market and potential
future development, creating a research framework for creating development
scenarios. Scenario planning is especially highlighted in the context
of oil industry considering the technique actually originated in this business
(it was also used in previous military doctrine), where, because of
using a scenario-based planning, some oil companies profited and gained
a privileged position. The aim of the paper is to provide an insight into
the importance and various approaches in using scenario planning today
and explain the potential long-term scenarios in the oil industry of Croatia
and the region, obtained by means of qualitative research and in-depth
interviews with a number of experts in the field of oil industry.
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