Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
<p>Billions of historical climatological observations remain unavailable to science as they exist only on paper, stored in numerous archives around the world. The conversion of these data from paper to digital could transform our understanding of historical climate variations, including extrem...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/1465/2023/nhess-23-1465-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797840457592471552 |
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| author | E. Hawkins P. Brohan S. N. Burgess S. Burt G. P. Compo G. P. Compo S. L. Gray I. D. Haigh H. Hersbach K. Kuijjer O. Martínez-Alvarado O. Martínez-Alvarado C. McColl C. McColl A. P. Schurer L. Slivinski L. Slivinski J. Williams |
| author_facet | E. Hawkins P. Brohan S. N. Burgess S. Burt G. P. Compo G. P. Compo S. L. Gray I. D. Haigh H. Hersbach K. Kuijjer O. Martínez-Alvarado O. Martínez-Alvarado C. McColl C. McColl A. P. Schurer L. Slivinski L. Slivinski J. Williams |
| author_sort | E. Hawkins |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Billions of historical climatological observations remain
unavailable to science as they exist only on paper, stored in numerous
archives around the world. The conversion of these data from paper to
digital could transform our understanding of historical climate variations,
including extreme weather events. Here we demonstrate how the rescue of such
paper observations has improved our understanding of a severe windstorm that
occurred in February 1903 and its significant impacts. By assimilating newly
rescued atmospheric pressure observations, the storm is now credibly
represented in an improved reanalysis of the event. In some locations this
storm produced stronger winds than any event during the modern period
(1950–2015) and it is in the top-4 storms for strongest winds anywhere over
land in England and Wales. As a result, estimates of risk from severe
storms, based on modern period data, may need to be revised. Examining the
atmospheric structure of the storm suggests that it is a classic
Shapiro–Keyser-type cyclone with “sting-jet” precursors and associated
extreme winds at locations and times of known significant damage. Comparison
with both independent observations and qualitative information, such as
photographs and written accounts, provides additional evidence of the
credibility of the atmospheric reconstruction, including sub-daily
rainfall variations. Simulations of the storm surge resulting from this
storm show a large coastal surge of around 2.5 m, comparing favourably with
newly rescued tide gauge observations and adding to our confidence in the
reconstruction. Combining historical rescued weather observations with
modern reanalysis techniques has allowed us to plausibly reconstruct a
severe windstorm and associated storm surge from more than 100 years ago,
establishing an invaluable end-to-end tool to improve assessments of risks
from extreme weather.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:15:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-17c3d58dbc6043e39077c2cca150ca65 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:15:25Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-17c3d58dbc6043e39077c2cca150ca652023-04-24T05:00:10ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812023-04-01231465148210.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risksE. Hawkins0P. Brohan1S. N. Burgess2S. Burt3G. P. Compo4G. P. Compo5S. L. Gray6I. D. Haigh7H. Hersbach8K. Kuijjer9O. Martínez-Alvarado10O. Martínez-Alvarado11C. McColl12C. McColl13A. P. Schurer14L. Slivinski15L. Slivinski16J. Williams17National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKCopernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF, Reading, UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USANOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USADepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKSchool of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UKCopernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF, Reading, UKSchool of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USANOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USASchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USANOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USANational Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK<p>Billions of historical climatological observations remain unavailable to science as they exist only on paper, stored in numerous archives around the world. The conversion of these data from paper to digital could transform our understanding of historical climate variations, including extreme weather events. Here we demonstrate how the rescue of such paper observations has improved our understanding of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and its significant impacts. By assimilating newly rescued atmospheric pressure observations, the storm is now credibly represented in an improved reanalysis of the event. In some locations this storm produced stronger winds than any event during the modern period (1950–2015) and it is in the top-4 storms for strongest winds anywhere over land in England and Wales. As a result, estimates of risk from severe storms, based on modern period data, may need to be revised. Examining the atmospheric structure of the storm suggests that it is a classic Shapiro–Keyser-type cyclone with “sting-jet” precursors and associated extreme winds at locations and times of known significant damage. Comparison with both independent observations and qualitative information, such as photographs and written accounts, provides additional evidence of the credibility of the atmospheric reconstruction, including sub-daily rainfall variations. Simulations of the storm surge resulting from this storm show a large coastal surge of around 2.5 m, comparing favourably with newly rescued tide gauge observations and adding to our confidence in the reconstruction. Combining historical rescued weather observations with modern reanalysis techniques has allowed us to plausibly reconstruct a severe windstorm and associated storm surge from more than 100 years ago, establishing an invaluable end-to-end tool to improve assessments of risks from extreme weather.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/1465/2023/nhess-23-1465-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Hawkins P. Brohan S. N. Burgess S. Burt G. P. Compo G. P. Compo S. L. Gray I. D. Haigh H. Hersbach K. Kuijjer O. Martínez-Alvarado O. Martínez-Alvarado C. McColl C. McColl A. P. Schurer L. Slivinski L. Slivinski J. Williams Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks |
| title_full | Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks |
| title_fullStr | Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks |
| title_short | Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks |
| title_sort | rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/1465/2023/nhess-23-1465-2023.pdf |
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