Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels
The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) calculates the surge probability distribution along the coast from their long-term tidal stations. This process is sufficient for predicting the surge from common storms but tends to underestimate large surges. Across 23 long-term tidal stat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/756 |
| _version_ | 1827690046610735104 |
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| author | Robert Mendelsohn |
| author_facet | Robert Mendelsohn |
| author_sort | Robert Mendelsohn |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) calculates the surge probability distribution along the coast from their long-term tidal stations. This process is sufficient for predicting the surge from common storms but tends to underestimate large surges. Across 23 long-term tidal stations along the East Coast of the United States, 100-year surges were observed 49 times, although they should have occurred only 23 times. We hypothesize that these 100-year surges are not the tail outcome from common storms but are actually caused by major hurricanes. Matching these 100-year surges with major hurricanes revealed that major hurricanes caused 43 of the 49 surges. We consequently suggest a revised approach to estimating the surge probability distribution. We used tidal data to estimate the probability of common surges but analyzed major hurricane surges separately, using the return rate of major hurricanes and the observed surge from each major hurricane to predict hurricane surges. The revision reveals that expected coastal flooding damage is higher than we thought, especially in the southeast United States. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:30:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-17c4d2434cb1468c9a11f8d30e01d5a9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:30:57Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-17c4d2434cb1468c9a11f8d30e01d5a92023-11-21T23:37:45ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-06-0112675610.3390/atmos12060756Predicting Major Storm Surge LevelsRobert Mendelsohn0Yale School of the Environment, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USAThe National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) calculates the surge probability distribution along the coast from their long-term tidal stations. This process is sufficient for predicting the surge from common storms but tends to underestimate large surges. Across 23 long-term tidal stations along the East Coast of the United States, 100-year surges were observed 49 times, although they should have occurred only 23 times. We hypothesize that these 100-year surges are not the tail outcome from common storms but are actually caused by major hurricanes. Matching these 100-year surges with major hurricanes revealed that major hurricanes caused 43 of the 49 surges. We consequently suggest a revised approach to estimating the surge probability distribution. We used tidal data to estimate the probability of common surges but analyzed major hurricane surges separately, using the return rate of major hurricanes and the observed surge from each major hurricane to predict hurricane surges. The revision reveals that expected coastal flooding damage is higher than we thought, especially in the southeast United States.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/756surge probability distributiontropical cyclonescoastal flooding |
| spellingShingle | Robert Mendelsohn Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels Atmosphere surge probability distribution tropical cyclones coastal flooding |
| title | Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels |
| title_full | Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels |
| title_short | Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels |
| title_sort | predicting major storm surge levels |
| topic | surge probability distribution tropical cyclones coastal flooding |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/756 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT robertmendelsohn predictingmajorstormsurgelevels |