| Summary: | Objective To explore the risk factors and establish a prediction model of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Methods A total of 268 postmenopausal women with suspected VTE without neoplasms admitted to our department from May 2018 to December 2019 were divided into VTE group (n=42) and non-VTE group (n=226) based on color Doppler ultrasound findings. The clinical data of the 2 groups were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors of VTE. The prediction model was established based on the identified risk factors and evaluated for its sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the prediction accuracy. Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified diabetes mellitus (OR=15.318, 95%CI: 6.563-74.275, P=0.036), a Caprini score ≥5 (OR=7.737, 95%CI: 2.459-13.168, P=0.012), D-dimer >0.5 mg/L (OR=10.602, 95%CI: 3.767-17.706, P=0.000), triglycerides (TG)>1.7 mmol/L (OR=2.651, 95%CI: 1.238-5.357, P=0.002), luteinizing hormone (LH)>52.3 IU/L (OR=1.539, 95%CI: 1.127-4.673, P=0.031), and estradiol (E2) < 30 nmol/L (OR=1.164, 95%CI: 1.064-2.058, P=0.047) as the risk factors for VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Based on these risk factors, the prediction model for VTS was derived: Prob=1/(e^-Y), where Y=36.578-2.729×combined diabetes-2.046×Caprini score-2.361×serum D-dimer-0.975×serum TG-0.431×serum LH-0.152×serum E2. ROC curve analysis showed that this prediction model had an AUC of 0.915 with a sensitivity of 90.30% and a specificity of 94.10%. The verification results showed that this model had an accuracy of 88.43% for predicting VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Conclusion Diabetes, a Caprini score ≥5, a D-dimer level >0.5 mg/L, a TG level >1.7 mmol/L, a LH level >52.3 U/L, and an E2 level < 30 nmol/L are all risk factors of VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. The predictive model constructed based on these risk factors can effectively assess the risk of VTE in these women.
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