Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model
Objective To explore the risk factors and establish a prediction model of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Methods A total of 268 postmenopausal women with suspected VTE without neoplasms admitted to our department from May 2018 to December 2019 were divided in...
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| Format: | Article |
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Editorial Office of Journal of Third Military Medical University
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Di-san junyi daxue xuebao |
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| Online Access: | http://aammt.tmmu.edu.cn/Upload/rhtml/202005211.htm |
| _version_ | 1831644807426998272 |
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| author | NIU Jingrong ZHANG Lijin YANG Wenshuang |
| author_facet | NIU Jingrong ZHANG Lijin YANG Wenshuang |
| author_sort | NIU Jingrong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective To explore the risk factors and establish a prediction model of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Methods A total of 268 postmenopausal women with suspected VTE without neoplasms admitted to our department from May 2018 to December 2019 were divided into VTE group (n=42) and non-VTE group (n=226) based on color Doppler ultrasound findings. The clinical data of the 2 groups were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors of VTE. The prediction model was established based on the identified risk factors and evaluated for its sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the prediction accuracy. Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified diabetes mellitus (OR=15.318, 95%CI: 6.563-74.275, P=0.036), a Caprini score ≥5 (OR=7.737, 95%CI: 2.459-13.168, P=0.012), D-dimer >0.5 mg/L (OR=10.602, 95%CI: 3.767-17.706, P=0.000), triglycerides (TG)>1.7 mmol/L (OR=2.651, 95%CI: 1.238-5.357, P=0.002), luteinizing hormone (LH)>52.3 IU/L (OR=1.539, 95%CI: 1.127-4.673, P=0.031), and estradiol (E2) < 30 nmol/L (OR=1.164, 95%CI: 1.064-2.058, P=0.047) as the risk factors for VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Based on these risk factors, the prediction model for VTS was derived: Prob=1/(e^-Y), where Y=36.578-2.729×combined diabetes-2.046×Caprini score-2.361×serum D-dimer-0.975×serum TG-0.431×serum LH-0.152×serum E2. ROC curve analysis showed that this prediction model had an AUC of 0.915 with a sensitivity of 90.30% and a specificity of 94.10%. The verification results showed that this model had an accuracy of 88.43% for predicting VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Conclusion Diabetes, a Caprini score ≥5, a D-dimer level >0.5 mg/L, a TG level >1.7 mmol/L, a LH level >52.3 U/L, and an E2 level < 30 nmol/L are all risk factors of VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. The predictive model constructed based on these risk factors can effectively assess the risk of VTE in these women. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T13:24:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-180b222843654d28ad9028bfe5471bd5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1000-5404 |
| language | zho |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T13:24:23Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Journal of Third Military Medical University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Di-san junyi daxue xuebao |
| spelling | doaj.art-180b222843654d28ad9028bfe5471bd52022-12-21T20:19:36ZzhoEditorial Office of Journal of Third Military Medical UniversityDi-san junyi daxue xuebao1000-54042020-11-0142222224223010.16016/j.1000-5404.202005211Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction modelNIU Jingrong0ZHANG Lijin1YANG Wenshuang 2Department of Vascular Surgery, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China Department of Vascular Surgery, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China Department of Vascular Surgery, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China Objective To explore the risk factors and establish a prediction model of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Methods A total of 268 postmenopausal women with suspected VTE without neoplasms admitted to our department from May 2018 to December 2019 were divided into VTE group (n=42) and non-VTE group (n=226) based on color Doppler ultrasound findings. The clinical data of the 2 groups were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors of VTE. The prediction model was established based on the identified risk factors and evaluated for its sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the prediction accuracy. Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified diabetes mellitus (OR=15.318, 95%CI: 6.563-74.275, P=0.036), a Caprini score ≥5 (OR=7.737, 95%CI: 2.459-13.168, P=0.012), D-dimer >0.5 mg/L (OR=10.602, 95%CI: 3.767-17.706, P=0.000), triglycerides (TG)>1.7 mmol/L (OR=2.651, 95%CI: 1.238-5.357, P=0.002), luteinizing hormone (LH)>52.3 IU/L (OR=1.539, 95%CI: 1.127-4.673, P=0.031), and estradiol (E2) < 30 nmol/L (OR=1.164, 95%CI: 1.064-2.058, P=0.047) as the risk factors for VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Based on these risk factors, the prediction model for VTS was derived: Prob=1/(e^-Y), where Y=36.578-2.729×combined diabetes-2.046×Caprini score-2.361×serum D-dimer-0.975×serum TG-0.431×serum LH-0.152×serum E2. ROC curve analysis showed that this prediction model had an AUC of 0.915 with a sensitivity of 90.30% and a specificity of 94.10%. The verification results showed that this model had an accuracy of 88.43% for predicting VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Conclusion Diabetes, a Caprini score ≥5, a D-dimer level >0.5 mg/L, a TG level >1.7 mmol/L, a LH level >52.3 U/L, and an E2 level < 30 nmol/L are all risk factors of VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. The predictive model constructed based on these risk factors can effectively assess the risk of VTE in these women.http://aammt.tmmu.edu.cn/Upload/rhtml/202005211.htmmenopausevenous thromboembolismrisk factorsprediction model |
| spellingShingle | NIU Jingrong ZHANG Lijin YANG Wenshuang Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model Di-san junyi daxue xuebao menopause venous thromboembolism risk factors prediction model |
| title | Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model |
| title_full | Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model |
| title_fullStr | Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model |
| title_short | Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model |
| title_sort | risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model |
| topic | menopause venous thromboembolism risk factors prediction model |
| url | http://aammt.tmmu.edu.cn/Upload/rhtml/202005211.htm |
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