Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union
Explanations behind area-based (Local Authority-level) voting preference in the 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union are explored using aggregate-level data. Developing local models, special attention is paid to whether variables explain the vote equally well across the country. Varia...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Maine
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Spatial Information Science |
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| Online Access: | http://josis.org/index.php/josis/article/view/377 |
| _version_ | 1811335165592469504 |
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| author | Roger Beecham Aidan Slingsby Chris Brunsdon |
| author_facet | Roger Beecham Aidan Slingsby Chris Brunsdon |
| author_sort | Roger Beecham |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Explanations behind area-based (Local Authority-level) voting preference in the 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union are explored using aggregate-level data. Developing local models, special attention is paid to whether variables explain the vote equally well across the country. Variables describing the post-industrial and economic "successfulness" of Local Authorities most strongly discriminate variation in the vote. To a lesser extent this is the case for variables linked to "metropolitan" and "big city" contexts, which assist the Remain vote, those that distinguish more traditional and "nativist" values, assisting Leave, and those loosely describing material outcomes, again reinforcing Leave. Whilst variables describing economic competitiveness co-vary with voting preference equally well across the country, the importance of secondary variables - those distinguishing metropolitan settings, values and outcomes - does vary by region. For certain variables and in certain areas, the direction of effect on voting preference reverses. For example, whilst levels of European Union migration mostly assist the Remain vote, in parts of the country the opposite effect is observed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T17:20:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-182a1fec4aac46ad8011cd0795693b30 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1948-660X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T17:20:08Z |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | University of Maine |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Spatial Information Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-182a1fec4aac46ad8011cd0795693b302022-12-22T02:38:00ZengUniversity of MaineJournal of Spatial Information Science1948-660X2018-06-0120181611713610.5311/JOSIS.2018.16.377186Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European UnionRoger Beecham0Aidan Slingsby1Chris Brunsdon2University of LeedsCity, University of LondonMaynooth UniversityExplanations behind area-based (Local Authority-level) voting preference in the 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union are explored using aggregate-level data. Developing local models, special attention is paid to whether variables explain the vote equally well across the country. Variables describing the post-industrial and economic "successfulness" of Local Authorities most strongly discriminate variation in the vote. To a lesser extent this is the case for variables linked to "metropolitan" and "big city" contexts, which assist the Remain vote, those that distinguish more traditional and "nativist" values, assisting Leave, and those loosely describing material outcomes, again reinforcing Leave. Whilst variables describing economic competitiveness co-vary with voting preference equally well across the country, the importance of secondary variables - those distinguishing metropolitan settings, values and outcomes - does vary by region. For certain variables and in certain areas, the direction of effect on voting preference reverses. For example, whilst levels of European Union migration mostly assist the Remain vote, in parts of the country the opposite effect is observed.http://josis.org/index.php/josis/article/view/377European Unionreferendummulti-level modellinggeographically-weighted statisticsLASSOarea-based analysis |
| spellingShingle | Roger Beecham Aidan Slingsby Chris Brunsdon Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union Journal of Spatial Information Science European Union referendum multi-level modelling geographically-weighted statistics LASSO area-based analysis |
| title | Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union |
| title_full | Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union |
| title_fullStr | Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union |
| title_full_unstemmed | Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union |
| title_short | Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union |
| title_sort | locally varying explanations behind the united kingdom s vote to leave the european union |
| topic | European Union referendum multi-level modelling geographically-weighted statistics LASSO area-based analysis |
| url | http://josis.org/index.php/josis/article/view/377 |
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