Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia
Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/3/314 |
| _version_ | 1797239075764174848 |
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| author | Niket Thakkar Ali Haji Adam Abubakar Mukhtar Shube Mustafe Awil Jama Mohamed Derow Philipp Lambach Hossam Ashmony Muhammad Farid So Yoon Sim Patrick O’Connor Anna Minta Anindya Sekhar Bose Patience Musanhu Quamrul Hasan Naor Bar-Zeev Sk Md Mamunur Rahman Malik |
| author_facet | Niket Thakkar Ali Haji Adam Abubakar Mukhtar Shube Mustafe Awil Jama Mohamed Derow Philipp Lambach Hossam Ashmony Muhammad Farid So Yoon Sim Patrick O’Connor Anna Minta Anindya Sekhar Bose Patience Musanhu Quamrul Hasan Naor Bar-Zeev Sk Md Mamunur Rahman Malik |
| author_sort | Niket Thakkar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including case-based surveillance, vaccine registries, and serological surveys. We use this model to assess the impact of these campaign interventions on Somalian’s measles susceptibility, showing, for example, that across the roughly 10 million doses delivered, 1 of every 5 immunized a susceptible child. Finally, we use the model to explore a counter-factual epidemiology without the 2019–2020 campaigns, and we estimate that those interventions prevented over 10,000 deaths. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:45:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-187dbf0e1dd84103ad79458d98019d89 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:45:46Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-187dbf0e1dd84103ad79458d98019d892024-03-27T14:07:07ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2024-03-0112331410.3390/vaccines12030314Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in SomaliaNiket Thakkar0Ali Haji Adam Abubakar1Mukhtar Shube2Mustafe Awil Jama3Mohamed Derow4Philipp Lambach5Hossam Ashmony6Muhammad Farid7So Yoon Sim8Patrick O’Connor9Anna Minta10Anindya Sekhar Bose11Patience Musanhu12Quamrul Hasan13Naor Bar-Zeev14Sk Md Mamunur Rahman Malik15Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USAFederal Ministry of Health, Mogadishu P.O. Box 22, SomaliaFederal Ministry of Health, Mogadishu P.O. Box 22, SomaliaFederal Ministry of Health, Mogadishu P.O. Box 22, SomaliaFederal Ministry of Health, Mogadishu P.O. Box 22, SomaliaWorld Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization, Mogadishu 63565, SomaliaWorld Health Organization, Mogadishu 63565, SomaliaWorld Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandGavi, The Vaccine Alliance, 1218 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo 11371, EgyptWorld Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization, Mogadishu 63565, SomaliaSomalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including case-based surveillance, vaccine registries, and serological surveys. We use this model to assess the impact of these campaign interventions on Somalian’s measles susceptibility, showing, for example, that across the roughly 10 million doses delivered, 1 of every 5 immunized a susceptible child. Finally, we use the model to explore a counter-factual epidemiology without the 2019–2020 campaigns, and we estimate that those interventions prevented over 10,000 deaths.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/3/314measlesvaccination campaigntransmission modelserologySomalia |
| spellingShingle | Niket Thakkar Ali Haji Adam Abubakar Mukhtar Shube Mustafe Awil Jama Mohamed Derow Philipp Lambach Hossam Ashmony Muhammad Farid So Yoon Sim Patrick O’Connor Anna Minta Anindya Sekhar Bose Patience Musanhu Quamrul Hasan Naor Bar-Zeev Sk Md Mamunur Rahman Malik Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia Vaccines measles vaccination campaign transmission model serology Somalia |
| title | Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia |
| title_full | Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia |
| title_short | Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia |
| title_sort | estimating the impact of vaccination campaigns on measles transmission in somalia |
| topic | measles vaccination campaign transmission model serology Somalia |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/3/314 |
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