Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks
Record low snowpack conditions were observed at Snow Telemetry stations in the Cascades Mountains, USA during the winters of 2014 and 2015. We tested the hypothesis that these winters are analogs for the temperature sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks. In the Oregon Cascades, the 2014 and 2015 winter...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084009 |
| _version_ | 1797748541241688064 |
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| author | Matthew G Cooper Anne W Nolin Mohammad Safeeq |
| author_facet | Matthew G Cooper Anne W Nolin Mohammad Safeeq |
| author_sort | Matthew G Cooper |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Record low snowpack conditions were observed at Snow Telemetry stations in the Cascades Mountains, USA during the winters of 2014 and 2015. We tested the hypothesis that these winters are analogs for the temperature sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks. In the Oregon Cascades, the 2014 and 2015 winter air temperature anomalies were approximately +2 °C and +4 °C above the climatological mean. We used a spatially distributed snowpack energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of multiple snowpack metrics to a +2 °C and +4 °C warming and compared our modeled sensitivities to observed values during 2014 and 2015. We found that for each +1 °C warming, modeled basin-mean peak snow water equivalent (SWE) declined by 22%–30%, the date of peak SWE (DPS) advanced by 13 days, the duration of snow cover (DSC) shortened by 31–34 days, and the snow disappearance date (SDD) advanced by 22–25 days. Our hypothesis was not borne out by the observations except in the case of peak SWE; other snow metrics did not resemble predicted values based on modeled sensitivities and thus are not effective analogs of future temperature sensitivities. Rather than just temperature, it appears that the magnitude and phasing of winter precipitation events, such as large, late spring snowfall, controlled the DPS, SDD, and DSC. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-188ff78ed1634ab490538359026b0d55 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:16Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-188ff78ed1634ab490538359026b0d552023-08-09T14:20:03ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-0111808400910.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084009Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacksMatthew G Cooper0Anne W Nolin1Mohammad Safeeq21255 Bunche Hall, Department of Geography, University of California , Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, and Water Resources Graduate Program, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97331, USA104 CEOAS Administration Building College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97331, USASierra Nevada Research Institute University of California , Merced, CA 95343, and US Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research. Station, Fresno, CA 93710, USARecord low snowpack conditions were observed at Snow Telemetry stations in the Cascades Mountains, USA during the winters of 2014 and 2015. We tested the hypothesis that these winters are analogs for the temperature sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks. In the Oregon Cascades, the 2014 and 2015 winter air temperature anomalies were approximately +2 °C and +4 °C above the climatological mean. We used a spatially distributed snowpack energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of multiple snowpack metrics to a +2 °C and +4 °C warming and compared our modeled sensitivities to observed values during 2014 and 2015. We found that for each +1 °C warming, modeled basin-mean peak snow water equivalent (SWE) declined by 22%–30%, the date of peak SWE (DPS) advanced by 13 days, the duration of snow cover (DSC) shortened by 31–34 days, and the snow disappearance date (SDD) advanced by 22–25 days. Our hypothesis was not borne out by the observations except in the case of peak SWE; other snow metrics did not resemble predicted values based on modeled sensitivities and thus are not effective analogs of future temperature sensitivities. Rather than just temperature, it appears that the magnitude and phasing of winter precipitation events, such as large, late spring snowfall, controlled the DPS, SDD, and DSC.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084009climate change impactssnowwarm spelldroughttemperature sensitivitysnow water equivalent |
| spellingShingle | Matthew G Cooper Anne W Nolin Mohammad Safeeq Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks Environmental Research Letters climate change impacts snow warm spell drought temperature sensitivity snow water equivalent |
| title | Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks |
| title_full | Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks |
| title_fullStr | Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks |
| title_short | Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks |
| title_sort | testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of cascades snowpacks |
| topic | climate change impacts snow warm spell drought temperature sensitivity snow water equivalent |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084009 |
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