Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts
Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these ``knowns'' about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the chall...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/20/200907b/jdm200907b.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827887299013115904 |
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| author | Andrew Gelman Jessica Hullman Christopher Wlezien George Elliott Morris |
| author_facet | Andrew Gelman Jessica Hullman Christopher Wlezien George Elliott Morris |
| author_sort | Andrew Gelman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Presidential
elections can be forecast using information from political and economic
conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over
time. However, these ``knowns'' about how to make a good presidential election
forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast
calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts,
and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We
illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election
predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020
election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and
scholars. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:16:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-189a6af339ac46259dc3fb46aeb1c3c4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:16:13Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-189a6af339ac46259dc3fb46aeb1c3c42023-08-02T01:16:09ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752020-09-01155863880Information, incentives, and goals in election forecastsAndrew GelmanJessica HullmanChristopher WlezienGeorge Elliott MorrisPresidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these ``knowns'' about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts, and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020 election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and scholars.http://journal.sjdm.org/20/200907b/jdm200907b.pdfforecasting elections polls probabilitynakeywords |
| spellingShingle | Andrew Gelman Jessica Hullman Christopher Wlezien George Elliott Morris Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts Judgment and Decision Making forecasting elections polls probabilitynakeywords |
| title | Information,
incentives, and goals in election forecasts |
| title_full | Information,
incentives, and goals in election forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Information,
incentives, and goals in election forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Information,
incentives, and goals in election forecasts |
| title_short | Information,
incentives, and goals in election forecasts |
| title_sort | information incentives and goals in election forecasts |
| topic | forecasting elections polls probabilitynakeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/20/200907b/jdm200907b.pdf |
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