A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality
Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prev...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Kashan University of Medical Sciences
2016-08-01
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| Series: | Archives of Trauma Research |
| Online Access: |
http://archtrauma.com/?page=article&article_id=36570
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| _version_ | 1797707034482704384 |
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| author | Yousefzadeh-Chabok Ranjbar-Taklimie Malekpouri Razzaghi |
| author_facet | Yousefzadeh-Chabok Ranjbar-Taklimie Malekpouri Razzaghi |
| author_sort | Yousefzadeh-Chabok |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background
Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control.
Objectives
This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling.
Materials and Methods
In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years.
Results
The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years.
Conclusions
There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T06:01:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-18d6fcee00274bab98dc2dd245f9e49e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2251-953X 2251-9599 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T06:01:24Z |
| publishDate | 2016-08-01 |
| publisher | Kashan University of Medical Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Archives of Trauma Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-18d6fcee00274bab98dc2dd245f9e49e2023-09-03T04:06:48ZengKashan University of Medical SciencesArchives of Trauma Research2251-953X2251-95992016-08-015310.5812/atr.36570A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident MortalityYousefzadeh-ChabokRanjbar-TaklimieMalekpouriRazzaghiBackground Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. http://archtrauma.com/?page=article&article_id=36570 |
| spellingShingle | Yousefzadeh-Chabok Ranjbar-Taklimie Malekpouri Razzaghi A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality Archives of Trauma Research |
| title | A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality |
| title_full | A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality |
| title_fullStr | A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality |
| title_short | A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality |
| title_sort | time series model for assessing the trend and forecasting the road traffic accident mortality |
| url |
http://archtrauma.com/?page=article&article_id=36570
|
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