Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru
The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the p...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/25805 |
| _version_ | 1818249143015964672 |
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| author | Moisés Arce Sofía Vera |
| author_facet | Moisés Arce Sofía Vera |
| author_sort | Moisés Arce |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:31:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-18ed84769f584e7797b60a584c051f35 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1852-9003 2660-700X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:31:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública |
| spelling | doaj.art-18ed84769f584e7797b60a584c051f352022-12-22T00:20:06ZengEdiciones Universidad de SalamancaRevista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública1852-90032660-700X2022-06-0111112610.14201/rlop.2580522889Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in PeruMoisés Arce0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1535-2132Sofía Vera1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4347-3302Tulane UniversityUniversity of KansasThe Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied.https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/25805forecastingpresidential electionseconomic votingperu |
| spellingShingle | Moisés Arce Sofía Vera Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública forecasting presidential elections economic voting peru |
| title | Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru |
| title_full | Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru |
| title_fullStr | Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru |
| title_full_unstemmed | Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru |
| title_short | Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru |
| title_sort | choosing the lesser evil forecasting presidential elections in peru |
| topic | forecasting presidential elections economic voting peru |
| url | https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/25805 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT moisesarce choosingthelesserevilforecastingpresidentialelectionsinperu AT sofiavera choosingthelesserevilforecastingpresidentialelectionsinperu |