Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty
Water, energy, and agricultural infrastructure investments have important inter-relations fulfilling potentially competing objectives. When shaping investment plans, decision makers need to evaluate those interactions and the associated uncertainties. We compare planning infrastructure under uncerta...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Water |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frwa.2021.672382/full |
| _version_ | 1818360251856977920 |
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| author | Raphaël Payet-Burin Raphaël Payet-Burin Mikkel Kromann Silvio Pereira-Cardenal Kenneth Marc Strzepek Peter Bauer-Gottwein |
| author_facet | Raphaël Payet-Burin Raphaël Payet-Burin Mikkel Kromann Silvio Pereira-Cardenal Kenneth Marc Strzepek Peter Bauer-Gottwein |
| author_sort | Raphaël Payet-Burin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Water, energy, and agricultural infrastructure investments have important inter-relations fulfilling potentially competing objectives. When shaping investment plans, decision makers need to evaluate those interactions and the associated uncertainties. We compare planning infrastructure under uncertainty with an integrated water-energy-food nexus framework and with sector-centered (silo) frameworks. We use WHAT-IF, an open-source hydroeconomic decision support tool with a holistic representation of the power and agriculture sectors. The tool is applied to an illustrative synthetic case and to a complex planning problem in the Zambezi River Basin involving reservoirs, hydropower, irrigation, transmission lines and power plant investments. In the synthetic case, the nexus framework selects investments that generate more synergies across sectors. In sector-centered frameworks, the value of investments that impact multiple sectors (like hydropower, bioenergy, and desalinization) are under- or overestimated. Furthermore, the nexus framework identifies risks related to uncertainties that are not linked to the investments respective sectors. In the Zambezi river case, we find that most investments are mainly sensitive to parameters related to their respective sectors, and that financial parameters like discount rate, capital costs or carbon taxes are driving the feasibility of investments. However, trade-offs between water for irrigation and water for hydropower are important; ignoring trade-offs in silo frameworks increases the irrigation expansion that is perceived as beneficial by 22% compared to a nexus framework that considers irrigation and hydropower jointly. Planning in a nexus framework is expected to be particularly important when projects and uncertainties can considerably affect the current equilibrium. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T20:57:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-18f259d009f0483b9c7859cbc5646a89 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-9375 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T20:57:50Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-18f259d009f0483b9c7859cbc5646a892022-12-21T23:31:40ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Water2624-93752021-05-01310.3389/frwa.2021.672382672382Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under UncertaintyRaphaël Payet-Burin0Raphaël Payet-Burin1Mikkel Kromann2Silvio Pereira-Cardenal3Kenneth Marc Strzepek4Peter Bauer-Gottwein5DTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkCOWI A/S, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkCOWI A/S, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkCOWI A/S, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United StatesDTU Environment, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkWater, energy, and agricultural infrastructure investments have important inter-relations fulfilling potentially competing objectives. When shaping investment plans, decision makers need to evaluate those interactions and the associated uncertainties. We compare planning infrastructure under uncertainty with an integrated water-energy-food nexus framework and with sector-centered (silo) frameworks. We use WHAT-IF, an open-source hydroeconomic decision support tool with a holistic representation of the power and agriculture sectors. The tool is applied to an illustrative synthetic case and to a complex planning problem in the Zambezi River Basin involving reservoirs, hydropower, irrigation, transmission lines and power plant investments. In the synthetic case, the nexus framework selects investments that generate more synergies across sectors. In sector-centered frameworks, the value of investments that impact multiple sectors (like hydropower, bioenergy, and desalinization) are under- or overestimated. Furthermore, the nexus framework identifies risks related to uncertainties that are not linked to the investments respective sectors. In the Zambezi river case, we find that most investments are mainly sensitive to parameters related to their respective sectors, and that financial parameters like discount rate, capital costs or carbon taxes are driving the feasibility of investments. However, trade-offs between water for irrigation and water for hydropower are important; ignoring trade-offs in silo frameworks increases the irrigation expansion that is perceived as beneficial by 22% compared to a nexus framework that considers irrigation and hydropower jointly. Planning in a nexus framework is expected to be particularly important when projects and uncertainties can considerably affect the current equilibrium.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frwa.2021.672382/fullwater-energy-food nexusplanninginfrastructureuncertaintyrobust decision makinghydroeconomic |
| spellingShingle | Raphaël Payet-Burin Raphaël Payet-Burin Mikkel Kromann Silvio Pereira-Cardenal Kenneth Marc Strzepek Peter Bauer-Gottwein Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty Frontiers in Water water-energy-food nexus planning infrastructure uncertainty robust decision making hydroeconomic |
| title | Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty |
| title_full | Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty |
| title_short | Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty |
| title_sort | nexus vs silo investment planning under uncertainty |
| topic | water-energy-food nexus planning infrastructure uncertainty robust decision making hydroeconomic |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frwa.2021.672382/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT raphaelpayetburin nexusvssiloinvestmentplanningunderuncertainty AT raphaelpayetburin nexusvssiloinvestmentplanningunderuncertainty AT mikkelkromann nexusvssiloinvestmentplanningunderuncertainty AT silviopereiracardenal nexusvssiloinvestmentplanningunderuncertainty AT kennethmarcstrzepek nexusvssiloinvestmentplanningunderuncertainty AT peterbauergottwein nexusvssiloinvestmentplanningunderuncertainty |