Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China
Improving our understanding of the patterns and drivers of regional carbon budgets is critical to mitigating climate change regionally and globally. Different from previous research, our study attempts to reveal the comprehensive impact of climate change and human activities factors on the carbon bu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-08-01
|
| Series: | Land |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/8/1230 |
| _version_ | 1797409380151328768 |
|---|---|
| author | Qi Fu Mengfan Gao Yue Wang Tinghui Wang Xu Bi Jinhua Chen |
| author_facet | Qi Fu Mengfan Gao Yue Wang Tinghui Wang Xu Bi Jinhua Chen |
| author_sort | Qi Fu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Improving our understanding of the patterns and drivers of regional carbon budgets is critical to mitigating climate change regionally and globally. Different from previous research, our study attempts to reveal the comprehensive impact of climate change and human activities factors on the carbon budget. Based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model, the IPCC inventory method, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, the Geodetector model, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of the carbon budget in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2000 to 2015 and analyzed the effects of climate change and human activities on the carbon budget. The results showed that the carbon budget in the YRD region changed from 271.33 million tons in 2000 to −1193.76 million tons in 2015. During this period, the changes in the carbon budget per unit area in the four provinces all showed a decreasing trend, among which Shanghai decreased the most, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui. In terms of spatial pattern, the carbon budget of the YRD region has a “core-edge” structural feature. The closer it is to Shanghai, the core area, the more severe the carbon budget deficit; the farther from it, the greater the carbon budget surplus. Overall, we found that human activities have a greater impact on the carbon budget than climate change. The top three drivers were, in order, changes in population density, GDP per capita, and unused land, with q values of 0.3317, 0.1202, and 0.0998, respectively. Locally, the impact of the drivers on the carbon budget shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. In particular, the population density was negatively correlated with carbon budget changes in the entire study area, and the coefficients of GDP per capita and unused land were negative in most counties. Based on the results, we put forward suggestions for restricting population flow among the core area and the peripheral area, promoting industrial innovation in the core area and ecological protection in the peripheral area, as well as implementing three-dimensional space development in the core area and controlling the expansion of construction land in the peripheral area. Our study can provide a scientific basis for low-carbon development in the YRD region. The methodology and findings of this study can provide references for similar studies in other urbanized regions around the world. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:13:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-18f800c14bc84370a9e0cceeba5fcd76 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:13:46Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-18f800c14bc84370a9e0cceeba5fcd762023-12-03T13:57:15ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2022-08-01118123010.3390/land11081230Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, ChinaQi Fu0Mengfan Gao1Yue Wang2Tinghui Wang3Xu Bi4Jinhua Chen5School of Politics and Public Administration, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, ChinaSchool of Politics and Public Administration, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, ChinaSchool of Politics and Public Administration, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, ChinaSchool of Politics and Public Administration, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environment, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, ChinaSchool of Politics and Public Administration, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, ChinaImproving our understanding of the patterns and drivers of regional carbon budgets is critical to mitigating climate change regionally and globally. Different from previous research, our study attempts to reveal the comprehensive impact of climate change and human activities factors on the carbon budget. Based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model, the IPCC inventory method, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, the Geodetector model, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of the carbon budget in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2000 to 2015 and analyzed the effects of climate change and human activities on the carbon budget. The results showed that the carbon budget in the YRD region changed from 271.33 million tons in 2000 to −1193.76 million tons in 2015. During this period, the changes in the carbon budget per unit area in the four provinces all showed a decreasing trend, among which Shanghai decreased the most, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui. In terms of spatial pattern, the carbon budget of the YRD region has a “core-edge” structural feature. The closer it is to Shanghai, the core area, the more severe the carbon budget deficit; the farther from it, the greater the carbon budget surplus. Overall, we found that human activities have a greater impact on the carbon budget than climate change. The top three drivers were, in order, changes in population density, GDP per capita, and unused land, with q values of 0.3317, 0.1202, and 0.0998, respectively. Locally, the impact of the drivers on the carbon budget shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. In particular, the population density was negatively correlated with carbon budget changes in the entire study area, and the coefficients of GDP per capita and unused land were negative in most counties. Based on the results, we put forward suggestions for restricting population flow among the core area and the peripheral area, promoting industrial innovation in the core area and ecological protection in the peripheral area, as well as implementing three-dimensional space development in the core area and controlling the expansion of construction land in the peripheral area. Our study can provide a scientific basis for low-carbon development in the YRD region. The methodology and findings of this study can provide references for similar studies in other urbanized regions around the world.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/8/1230carbon budgetspatiotemporal patternsdriversYangtze River Delta |
| spellingShingle | Qi Fu Mengfan Gao Yue Wang Tinghui Wang Xu Bi Jinhua Chen Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China Land carbon budget spatiotemporal patterns drivers Yangtze River Delta |
| title | Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of the carbon budget in the yangtze river delta region china |
| topic | carbon budget spatiotemporal patterns drivers Yangtze River Delta |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/8/1230 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT qifu spatiotemporalpatternsanddriversofthecarbonbudgetintheyangtzeriverdeltaregionchina AT mengfangao spatiotemporalpatternsanddriversofthecarbonbudgetintheyangtzeriverdeltaregionchina AT yuewang spatiotemporalpatternsanddriversofthecarbonbudgetintheyangtzeriverdeltaregionchina AT tinghuiwang spatiotemporalpatternsanddriversofthecarbonbudgetintheyangtzeriverdeltaregionchina AT xubi spatiotemporalpatternsanddriversofthecarbonbudgetintheyangtzeriverdeltaregionchina AT jinhuachen spatiotemporalpatternsanddriversofthecarbonbudgetintheyangtzeriverdeltaregionchina |