Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Pro...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d |
| _version_ | 1797748256539672576 |
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| author | Donghyun Lee Seung-Ki Min Erich Fischer Hideo Shiogama Ingo Bethke Ludwig Lierhammer John F Scinocca |
| author_facet | Donghyun Lee Seung-Ki Min Erich Fischer Hideo Shiogama Ingo Bethke Ludwig Lierhammer John F Scinocca |
| author_sort | Donghyun Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-192f86837d6049f880ba6b6733c1f454 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:19Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-192f86837d6049f880ba6b6733c1f4542023-08-09T14:32:58ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113404403310.1088/1748-9326/aab55dImpacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristicsDonghyun Lee0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0184-2712Seung-Ki Min1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6749-010XErich Fischer2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1931-6737Hideo Shiogama3Ingo Bethke4Ludwig Lierhammer5John F Scinocca6Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology , Pohang, KoreaDivision of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology , Pohang, Korea; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science , Zurich, SwitzerlandNational Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Ibaraki, JapanUni Research Climate, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research , Bergen, NorwayGerman Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) , Hamburg, GermanyCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada , Victoria, British Columbia, CanadaThis study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55dHAPPIParis AgreementAsian summer monsoonextreme precipitationClausius-Clapeyron relation |
| spellingShingle | Donghyun Lee Seung-Ki Min Erich Fischer Hideo Shiogama Ingo Bethke Ludwig Lierhammer John F Scinocca Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics Environmental Research Letters HAPPI Paris Agreement Asian summer monsoon extreme precipitation Clausius-Clapeyron relation |
| title | Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics |
| title_full | Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics |
| title_short | Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics |
| title_sort | impacts of half a degree additional warming on the asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics |
| topic | HAPPI Paris Agreement Asian summer monsoon extreme precipitation Clausius-Clapeyron relation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d |
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