Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy
The corporate average fuel consumption (<i>CAFC</i>) and new energy vehicle (<i>NEV</i>) credit policy (2021–2023) was officially released in June 2020. As a mandatory regulation for automobile manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles, its impact on the output of new ener...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-08-01
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| Series: | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/12/3/119 |
| _version_ | 1797516902401048576 |
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| author | Li Lv Xi Li |
| author_facet | Li Lv Xi Li |
| author_sort | Li Lv |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The corporate average fuel consumption (<i>CAFC</i>) and new energy vehicle (<i>NEV</i>) credit policy (2021–2023) was officially released in June 2020. As a mandatory regulation for automobile manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles, its impact on the output of new energy vehicles needs to be systematically evaluated. In this study, we build an enterprise policy compliance model to simulate the dual-credit policy requirements for the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 under different scenarios. The results show that the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 is required to reach 1.78 to 3.97 million under different scenarios. Three factors, i.e., switching from New Europe Driving Cycle (NEDC) to World Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) fuel consumption improvement of conventional vehicles, and credit per new energy vehicle, have a more significant impact on the new energy vehicle production than others. Under the minimum guarantee scenario, a 10% change in the above three factors will lead to a 2.5%, 1.5%, and 0.5% reduction in the production requirement for new energy vehicles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:07:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1945614c7adc4188a10bbb15a42a1813 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2032-6653 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:07:22Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-1945614c7adc4188a10bbb15a42a18132023-11-22T15:42:17ZengMDPI AGWorld Electric Vehicle Journal2032-66532021-08-0112311910.3390/wevj12030119Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit PolicyLi Lv0Xi Li1China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, ChinaThe corporate average fuel consumption (<i>CAFC</i>) and new energy vehicle (<i>NEV</i>) credit policy (2021–2023) was officially released in June 2020. As a mandatory regulation for automobile manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles, its impact on the output of new energy vehicles needs to be systematically evaluated. In this study, we build an enterprise policy compliance model to simulate the dual-credit policy requirements for the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 under different scenarios. The results show that the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 is required to reach 1.78 to 3.97 million under different scenarios. Three factors, i.e., switching from New Europe Driving Cycle (NEDC) to World Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) fuel consumption improvement of conventional vehicles, and credit per new energy vehicle, have a more significant impact on the new energy vehicle production than others. Under the minimum guarantee scenario, a 10% change in the above three factors will lead to a 2.5%, 1.5%, and 0.5% reduction in the production requirement for new energy vehicles.https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/12/3/119Chinadual-credit policynew energy vehicleproduction |
| spellingShingle | Li Lv Xi Li Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy World Electric Vehicle Journal China dual-credit policy new energy vehicle production |
| title | Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy |
| title_full | Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy |
| title_fullStr | Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy |
| title_short | Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy |
| title_sort | production forecast of china s new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 2023 under the compliance of dual credit policy |
| topic | China dual-credit policy new energy vehicle production |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/12/3/119 |
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