HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona
We present a new 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) heliospheric model for space-weather forecasting driven by boundary conditions defined from white-light observations of the solar corona. The model is based on the MHD code PLUTO, constrained by an empirical derivation of the solar wind background proper...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EDP Sciences
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2023/01/swsc220066/swsc220066.html |
| _version_ | 1797835143996506112 |
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| author | Réville Victor Poirier Nicolas Kouloumvakos Athanasios Rouillard Alexis Paul Ferreira Pinto Rui Fargette Naïs Indurain Mikel Fournon Raphaël James Théo Pobeda Raphaël Scoul Cyril |
| author_facet | Réville Victor Poirier Nicolas Kouloumvakos Athanasios Rouillard Alexis Paul Ferreira Pinto Rui Fargette Naïs Indurain Mikel Fournon Raphaël James Théo Pobeda Raphaël Scoul Cyril |
| author_sort | Réville Victor |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We present a new 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) heliospheric model for space-weather forecasting driven by boundary conditions defined from white-light observations of the solar corona. The model is based on the MHD code PLUTO, constrained by an empirical derivation of the solar wind background properties at 0.1 au. This empirical method uses white-light observations to estimate the position of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). The boundary conditions necessary to run HelioCast are then defined from pre-defined relations between the necessary MHD properties (speed, density, and temperature) and the distance to the current sheet. We assess the accuracy of the model over six Carrington rotations during the first semester of 2018. Using point-by-point metrics and event-based analyses, we evaluate the performances of our model varying the angular width of the slow solar wind layer surrounding the HCS. We also compare our empirical technique with two well-tested models of the corona: Multi-VP and WindPredict-AW. We find that our method is well-suited to reproduce high-speed streams, and does – for well-chosen parameters – better than full MHD models. The model shows, nonetheless, limitations that could worsen for rising and maximum solar activity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T14:49:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-194dc6887e3a4f4b9e50357cb4c0ae21 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2115-7251 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T14:49:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-194dc6887e3a4f4b9e50357cb4c0ae212023-05-02T09:42:06ZengEDP SciencesJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate2115-72512023-01-01131110.1051/swsc/2023008swsc220066HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar coronaRéville Victor0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2916-3837Poirier Nicolas1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1814-4673Kouloumvakos Athanasios2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6589-4509Rouillard Alexis Paul3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4039-5767Ferreira Pinto Rui4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8247-7168Fargette Naïs5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6308-1715Indurain Mikel6Fournon Raphaël7James Théo8Pobeda Raphaël9Scoul Cyril10IRAP, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, CNRS, CNESRosseland Centre for Solar Physics, University of OsloThe Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics LaboratoryIRAP, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, CNRS, CNESDépartement d’Astrophysique/AIM, CEA/IRFU, CNRS/INSU, Univ. Paris-Saclay & Univ. de ParisThe Blackett Laboratory, Imperial CollegeIRAP, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, CNRS, CNESIRAP, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, CNRS, CNESIRAP, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, CNRS, CNESIRAP, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, CNRS, CNESIRAP, Université Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier, CNRS, CNESWe present a new 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) heliospheric model for space-weather forecasting driven by boundary conditions defined from white-light observations of the solar corona. The model is based on the MHD code PLUTO, constrained by an empirical derivation of the solar wind background properties at 0.1 au. This empirical method uses white-light observations to estimate the position of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). The boundary conditions necessary to run HelioCast are then defined from pre-defined relations between the necessary MHD properties (speed, density, and temperature) and the distance to the current sheet. We assess the accuracy of the model over six Carrington rotations during the first semester of 2018. Using point-by-point metrics and event-based analyses, we evaluate the performances of our model varying the angular width of the slow solar wind layer surrounding the HCS. We also compare our empirical technique with two well-tested models of the corona: Multi-VP and WindPredict-AW. We find that our method is well-suited to reproduce high-speed streams, and does – for well-chosen parameters – better than full MHD models. The model shows, nonetheless, limitations that could worsen for rising and maximum solar activity.https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2023/01/swsc220066/swsc220066.htmlspace weathersolar windmhd |
| spellingShingle | Réville Victor Poirier Nicolas Kouloumvakos Athanasios Rouillard Alexis Paul Ferreira Pinto Rui Fargette Naïs Indurain Mikel Fournon Raphaël James Théo Pobeda Raphaël Scoul Cyril HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate space weather solar wind mhd |
| title | HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona |
| title_full | HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona |
| title_fullStr | HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona |
| title_full_unstemmed | HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona |
| title_short | HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona |
| title_sort | heliocast heliospheric forecasting based on white light observations of the solar corona |
| topic | space weather solar wind mhd |
| url | https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2023/01/swsc220066/swsc220066.html |
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