Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plant
Many plant species are likely to face population decline or even extinction in the coming century, especially those with a limited distribution and inadequate dispersal relative to the projected rates of climate change. The obligate seeding California endemic, Ceanothus perplexans is especially at r...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1149509/full |
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| author | Gregory A. Backus Miranda Brooke Rose Santiago José Elías Velazco Santiago José Elías Velazco Janet Franklin Janet Franklin Janet Franklin Alexandra D. Syphard Alexandra D. Syphard Helen M. Regan |
| author_facet | Gregory A. Backus Miranda Brooke Rose Santiago José Elías Velazco Santiago José Elías Velazco Janet Franklin Janet Franklin Janet Franklin Alexandra D. Syphard Alexandra D. Syphard Helen M. Regan |
| author_sort | Gregory A. Backus |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many plant species are likely to face population decline or even extinction in the coming century, especially those with a limited distribution and inadequate dispersal relative to the projected rates of climate change. The obligate seeding California endemic, Ceanothus perplexans is especially at risk, and depending on how climate change interacts with altered fire regimes in Southern California, certain populations are likely to be more at risk than others. To identify which areas within the species’ range might need conservation intervention, we modeled population dynamics of C. perplexans under various climate and fire regime change scenarios, focusing on spatially explicit patterns in fire frequency. We used a species distribution model to predict the initial range and potential future habitat, while adapting a density-dependent, stage-structured population model to simulate population dynamics. As a fire-adapted obligate seeder, simulated fire events caused C. perplexans seeds to germinate, but also killed all adults in the population. Our simulations showed that the total population would likely decline under any combination of climate change and fire scenario, with the species faring best at an intermediate fire return interval of around 30–50 years. Nevertheless, while the total population declines least with a 30–50 year fire return interval, the effect of individual subpopulations varies depending on spatially explicit patterns in fire simulations. Though climate change is a greater threat to most subpopulations, increased fire frequencies particularly threatened populations in the northwest of the species’ range closest to human development. Subpopulations in the mountainous southern end of the range are likely to face the sharpest declines regardless of fire. Through a combination of species distribution modeling, fire modeling, and spatially explicit demographic simulations, we can better prepare for targeted conservation management of vulnerable species affected by global change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:17:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-19548245f7864be1bb91519ebdf5b3c5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-701X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:17:11Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-19548245f7864be1bb91519ebdf5b3c52023-03-22T05:53:08ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution2296-701X2023-03-011110.3389/fevo.2023.11495091149509Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plantGregory A. Backus0Miranda Brooke Rose1Santiago José Elías Velazco2Santiago José Elías Velazco3Janet Franklin4Janet Franklin5Janet Franklin6Alexandra D. Syphard7Alexandra D. Syphard8Helen M. Regan9Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, United StatesDepartment of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, United StatesInstituto de Biología Subtropical, Universidad Nacional de Misiones-CONICET, Puerto Iguazú, Misiones, ArgentinaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Biodiversidade Neotropical, Universidade Federal da Integração Latino-Americana, Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, BrazilDepartment of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, United StatesDepartment of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, United StatesDepartment of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United StatesDepartment of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United StatesConservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR, United StatesDepartment of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, United StatesMany plant species are likely to face population decline or even extinction in the coming century, especially those with a limited distribution and inadequate dispersal relative to the projected rates of climate change. The obligate seeding California endemic, Ceanothus perplexans is especially at risk, and depending on how climate change interacts with altered fire regimes in Southern California, certain populations are likely to be more at risk than others. To identify which areas within the species’ range might need conservation intervention, we modeled population dynamics of C. perplexans under various climate and fire regime change scenarios, focusing on spatially explicit patterns in fire frequency. We used a species distribution model to predict the initial range and potential future habitat, while adapting a density-dependent, stage-structured population model to simulate population dynamics. As a fire-adapted obligate seeder, simulated fire events caused C. perplexans seeds to germinate, but also killed all adults in the population. Our simulations showed that the total population would likely decline under any combination of climate change and fire scenario, with the species faring best at an intermediate fire return interval of around 30–50 years. Nevertheless, while the total population declines least with a 30–50 year fire return interval, the effect of individual subpopulations varies depending on spatially explicit patterns in fire simulations. Though climate change is a greater threat to most subpopulations, increased fire frequencies particularly threatened populations in the northwest of the species’ range closest to human development. Subpopulations in the mountainous southern end of the range are likely to face the sharpest declines regardless of fire. Through a combination of species distribution modeling, fire modeling, and spatially explicit demographic simulations, we can better prepare for targeted conservation management of vulnerable species affected by global change.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1149509/fullfireCeanothuschaparralclimate changespecies rangepopulation model |
| spellingShingle | Gregory A. Backus Miranda Brooke Rose Santiago José Elías Velazco Santiago José Elías Velazco Janet Franklin Janet Franklin Janet Franklin Alexandra D. Syphard Alexandra D. Syphard Helen M. Regan Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plant Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution fire Ceanothus chaparral climate change species range population model |
| title | Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plant |
| title_full | Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plant |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plant |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plant |
| title_short | Modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire-dependent plant |
| title_sort | modeling the effects of spatially explicit patterns of climate and fire on future populations of a fire dependent plant |
| topic | fire Ceanothus chaparral climate change species range population model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1149509/full |
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