Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Changes in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such c...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab797 |
| _version_ | 1827870889650159616 |
|---|---|
| author | Fahad Saeed Ingo Bethke Erich Fischer Stephanie Legutke Hideo Shiogama Dáithí A Stone Carl-Friedrich Schleussner |
| author_facet | Fahad Saeed Ingo Bethke Erich Fischer Stephanie Legutke Hideo Shiogama Dáithí A Stone Carl-Friedrich Schleussner |
| author_sort | Fahad Saeed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Changes in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such changes. This is particularly the case for tropical regions, where most precipitation occurs during the rainy season and changes in rainy season onset and length have substantial consequences. Here we present projections for changes in tropical rainy season lengths for mean temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Based on multi-ensemble quasi-stationary simulations at these warming levels, our analysis indicates robust changes in rainy season characteristics in large parts of the tropics despite substantial natural variability. Specifically, we report a robust shortening of the rainy season for all of tropical Africa as well as north-east Brazil. About 27% of West Africa is projected to experience robust changes in the rainy season length with a mean shortening of about 7 days under 1.5 °C. We find that changes in the temporal characteristics are largely unrelated to changes in overall precipitation, highlighting the importance of investigating both separately. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-19eb1b7ca1784e3197a3575cda8f7c84 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:20Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-19eb1b7ca1784e3197a3575cda8f7c842023-08-09T14:33:08ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113606402410.1088/1748-9326/aab797Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °CFahad Saeed0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1899-9118Ingo Bethke1Erich Fischer2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1931-6737Stephanie Legutke3Hideo Shiogama4Dáithí A Stone5Carl-Friedrich Schleussner6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8471-848XClimate Analytics , Berlin, Germany; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University , Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research , Bergen, NorwayETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science , Zurich, SwitzerlandDeutsches Klimarechenzentrum , Hamburg, GermanyCenter for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, JapanComputational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory , Berkeley, CA, United States of AmericaClimate Analytics , Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Potsdam, Germany; IRITHESys, Humboldt University , Berlin, GermanyChanges in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such changes. This is particularly the case for tropical regions, where most precipitation occurs during the rainy season and changes in rainy season onset and length have substantial consequences. Here we present projections for changes in tropical rainy season lengths for mean temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Based on multi-ensemble quasi-stationary simulations at these warming levels, our analysis indicates robust changes in rainy season characteristics in large parts of the tropics despite substantial natural variability. Specifically, we report a robust shortening of the rainy season for all of tropical Africa as well as north-east Brazil. About 27% of West Africa is projected to experience robust changes in the rainy season length with a mean shortening of about 7 days under 1.5 °C. We find that changes in the temporal characteristics are largely unrelated to changes in overall precipitation, highlighting the importance of investigating both separately.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab7971.5 °Ctropicsrainy seasononsetclimate changeclimate modelling |
| spellingShingle | Fahad Saeed Ingo Bethke Erich Fischer Stephanie Legutke Hideo Shiogama Dáithí A Stone Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C Environmental Research Letters 1.5 °C tropics rainy season onset climate change climate modelling |
| title | Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C |
| title_full | Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C |
| title_fullStr | Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C |
| title_full_unstemmed | Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C |
| title_short | Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C |
| title_sort | robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1 5 °c and 2 °c |
| topic | 1.5 °C tropics rainy season onset climate change climate modelling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab797 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fahadsaeed robustchangesintropicalrainyseasonlengthat15cand2c AT ingobethke robustchangesintropicalrainyseasonlengthat15cand2c AT erichfischer robustchangesintropicalrainyseasonlengthat15cand2c AT stephanielegutke robustchangesintropicalrainyseasonlengthat15cand2c AT hideoshiogama robustchangesintropicalrainyseasonlengthat15cand2c AT daithiastone robustchangesintropicalrainyseasonlengthat15cand2c AT carlfriedrichschleussner robustchangesintropicalrainyseasonlengthat15cand2c |