Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system
Abstract The impact of increased model horizontal resolution on climate prediction performance is examined by comparing results from low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) decadal prediction simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). There is general improvement in glo...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-07-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00434-y |
| _version_ | 1797752743785398272 |
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| author | Stephen G. Yeager Ping Chang Gokhan Danabasoglu Nan Rosenbloom Qiuying Zhang Fred S. Castruccio Abishek Gopal M. Cameron Rencurrel Isla R. Simpson |
| author_facet | Stephen G. Yeager Ping Chang Gokhan Danabasoglu Nan Rosenbloom Qiuying Zhang Fred S. Castruccio Abishek Gopal M. Cameron Rencurrel Isla R. Simpson |
| author_sort | Stephen G. Yeager |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The impact of increased model horizontal resolution on climate prediction performance is examined by comparing results from low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) decadal prediction simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). There is general improvement in global skill and signal-to-noise characteristics, with particularly noteworthy improvements in the eastern tropical Pacific, when resolution is increased from order 1° in all components to order 0.1°/0.25° in the ocean/atmosphere. A key advance in the ocean eddy-resolving HR system is the reduction of unrealistic warming in the Southern Ocean (SO) which we hypothesize has global ramifications through its impacts on tropical Pacific multidecadal variability. The results suggest that accurate representation of SO processes is critical for improving decadal climate predictions globally and for addressing longstanding issues with coupled climate model simulations of recent Earth system change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:08:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-19ec71ab725943b2bae92b41a4a769a4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:08:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-19ec71ab725943b2bae92b41a4a769a42023-08-06T11:10:40ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-07-016111310.1038/s41612-023-00434-yReduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction systemStephen G. Yeager0Ping Chang1Gokhan Danabasoglu2Nan Rosenbloom3Qiuying Zhang4Fred S. Castruccio5Abishek Gopal6M. Cameron Rencurrel7Isla R. Simpson8National Center for Atmospheric ResearchDepartment of Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchDepartment of Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchDepartment of Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityDepartment of Oceanography, Texas A&M UniversityNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchAbstract The impact of increased model horizontal resolution on climate prediction performance is examined by comparing results from low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) decadal prediction simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). There is general improvement in global skill and signal-to-noise characteristics, with particularly noteworthy improvements in the eastern tropical Pacific, when resolution is increased from order 1° in all components to order 0.1°/0.25° in the ocean/atmosphere. A key advance in the ocean eddy-resolving HR system is the reduction of unrealistic warming in the Southern Ocean (SO) which we hypothesize has global ramifications through its impacts on tropical Pacific multidecadal variability. The results suggest that accurate representation of SO processes is critical for improving decadal climate predictions globally and for addressing longstanding issues with coupled climate model simulations of recent Earth system change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00434-y |
| spellingShingle | Stephen G. Yeager Ping Chang Gokhan Danabasoglu Nan Rosenbloom Qiuying Zhang Fred S. Castruccio Abishek Gopal M. Cameron Rencurrel Isla R. Simpson Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system |
| title_full | Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system |
| title_fullStr | Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system |
| title_short | Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system |
| title_sort | reduced southern ocean warming enhances global skill and signal to noise in an eddy resolving decadal prediction system |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00434-y |
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