Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population
Abstract African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious and highly fatal disease affecting wild and domestic swine, which is unstoppably spreading worldwide. In Europe, wild boars are one of the main drivers of spread, transmission, and maintenance of the disease. Landscape connectivity studies are the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53869-5 |
| _version_ | 1797274631229407232 |
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| author | Teresa Goicolea Pablo Cisneros-Araújo Cecilia Aguilar Vega Jose Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno MCruz Mateo-Sánchez Jaime Bosch |
| author_facet | Teresa Goicolea Pablo Cisneros-Araújo Cecilia Aguilar Vega Jose Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno MCruz Mateo-Sánchez Jaime Bosch |
| author_sort | Teresa Goicolea |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious and highly fatal disease affecting wild and domestic swine, which is unstoppably spreading worldwide. In Europe, wild boars are one of the main drivers of spread, transmission, and maintenance of the disease. Landscape connectivity studies are the main discipline to analyze wild-species dispersal networks, and it can be an essential tool to predict dispersal-wild boar movement routes and probabilities and therefore the associated potential ASF spread through the suitable habitat. We aimed to integrate wild boar habitat connectivity predictions with their occurrence, population abundance, and ASF notifications to calculate the impact (i.e., the capacity of a landscape feature to favor ASF spread) and the risk (i.e., the likelihood of a habitat patch becoming infected) of wild boar infection across Europe. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the risk of infection by comparing the results with the temporal distribution of ASF cases. Our findings identified the areas with the highest impact and risk factors within Europe's central and Eastern regions where ASF is currently distributed. Additionally, the impact factor was 31 times higher on habitat patches that were infected vs non-infected, proving the utility of the proposed approach and the key role of wild boar movements in ASF-spread. All data and resulting maps are openly accessible and usable. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:01:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-19eefafdabcd463f92abffd72d8792b3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:01:04Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-19eefafdabcd463f92abffd72d8792b32024-03-05T19:07:43ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-02-011411910.1038/s41598-024-53869-5Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar populationTeresa Goicolea0Pablo Cisneros-Araújo1Cecilia Aguilar Vega2Jose Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno3MCruz Mateo-Sánchez4Jaime Bosch5ETSI Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de MadridETSI Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de MadridVISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Universidad Complutense de MadridVISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Universidad Complutense de MadridETSI Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de MadridVISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Universidad Complutense de MadridAbstract African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious and highly fatal disease affecting wild and domestic swine, which is unstoppably spreading worldwide. In Europe, wild boars are one of the main drivers of spread, transmission, and maintenance of the disease. Landscape connectivity studies are the main discipline to analyze wild-species dispersal networks, and it can be an essential tool to predict dispersal-wild boar movement routes and probabilities and therefore the associated potential ASF spread through the suitable habitat. We aimed to integrate wild boar habitat connectivity predictions with their occurrence, population abundance, and ASF notifications to calculate the impact (i.e., the capacity of a landscape feature to favor ASF spread) and the risk (i.e., the likelihood of a habitat patch becoming infected) of wild boar infection across Europe. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the risk of infection by comparing the results with the temporal distribution of ASF cases. Our findings identified the areas with the highest impact and risk factors within Europe's central and Eastern regions where ASF is currently distributed. Additionally, the impact factor was 31 times higher on habitat patches that were infected vs non-infected, proving the utility of the proposed approach and the key role of wild boar movements in ASF-spread. All data and resulting maps are openly accessible and usable.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53869-5African swine feverDisease spreadWild boarLandscape connectivityAnimal movementInternational-corridors |
| spellingShingle | Teresa Goicolea Pablo Cisneros-Araújo Cecilia Aguilar Vega Jose Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno MCruz Mateo-Sánchez Jaime Bosch Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population Scientific Reports African swine fever Disease spread Wild boar Landscape connectivity Animal movement International-corridors |
| title | Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population |
| title_full | Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population |
| title_fullStr | Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population |
| title_full_unstemmed | Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population |
| title_short | Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population |
| title_sort | landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of asf in the european wild boar population |
| topic | African swine fever Disease spread Wild boar Landscape connectivity Animal movement International-corridors |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53869-5 |
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