Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods
<b>Aim:</b> The developments in the poultry industry, due to its closeness to an important part of Turkey's potential export markets has increased the interest in this sector. The aim of this study was to evaluate between January (2010) and February (2018) of time series related to...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Selcuk University Press
|
| Series: | Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1212 |
| _version_ | 1826902589269082112 |
|---|---|
| author | Özlem Kaymaz |
| author_facet | Özlem Kaymaz |
| author_sort | Özlem Kaymaz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Aim:</b> The developments in the poultry industry, due to its closeness
to an important part of Turkey's potential export markets
has increased the interest in this sector. The aim of this study
was to evaluate between January (2010) and February (2018)
of time series related to commercial egg monthly production in
Turkey, with Box-Jenkins and Winter's exponential smoothing
method and comparison of the forecast models.<p>
<b>Materials and Methods:</b> Data was obtained from Turkey Statistical
Institute (TUIK) database which related to commercial
egg monthly production in Turkey between 2010 to 2018. In
this study, the predictions obtained by using the seasonal autoregressive
integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Winter's
exponential smoothing method and the forecast models were
compared with RMSE, MAPE and MAE criterions.<p>
<b>Results:</b> When we look at the model of accuracy measures, it
can be said that Winter's exponential smoothing is more accurate
than Box-Jenkins method. The multiplicative model of
Winter's exponential smoothing method is preferred because
the MAPE and MAE values are smaller.<p>
<b>Conclusion:</b> According to multiplicative Winter's exponential
smoothing method, it is predicted that commercial egg production
will increase 3.27% in 2018, 7.69% in 2019 based on the
year 2017. According to results, the amount of commercial egg
production tends to increase between 2018 and 2019. Forecasting
commercial egg production can be used in the poultry
sector and useful for better decision making and production
planning for the future. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-17T07:41:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1a398347406b4ef8b079abe736f0bd33 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1309-6958 2146-1953 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-17T07:41:51Z |
| publisher | Selcuk University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-1a398347406b4ef8b079abe736f0bd332025-01-03T01:36:16ZengSelcuk University PressEurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences1309-69582146-19533431421491212Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methodsÖzlem Kaymaz<b>Aim:</b> The developments in the poultry industry, due to its closeness to an important part of Turkey's potential export markets has increased the interest in this sector. The aim of this study was to evaluate between January (2010) and February (2018) of time series related to commercial egg monthly production in Turkey, with Box-Jenkins and Winter's exponential smoothing method and comparison of the forecast models.<p> <b>Materials and Methods:</b> Data was obtained from Turkey Statistical Institute (TUIK) database which related to commercial egg monthly production in Turkey between 2010 to 2018. In this study, the predictions obtained by using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Winter's exponential smoothing method and the forecast models were compared with RMSE, MAPE and MAE criterions.<p> <b>Results:</b> When we look at the model of accuracy measures, it can be said that Winter's exponential smoothing is more accurate than Box-Jenkins method. The multiplicative model of Winter's exponential smoothing method is preferred because the MAPE and MAE values are smaller.<p> <b>Conclusion:</b> According to multiplicative Winter's exponential smoothing method, it is predicted that commercial egg production will increase 3.27% in 2018, 7.69% in 2019 based on the year 2017. According to results, the amount of commercial egg production tends to increase between 2018 and 2019. Forecasting commercial egg production can be used in the poultry sector and useful for better decision making and production planning for the future.http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1212box-jenkins methodsforecastsarimatime serieswinters exponential smoothing method |
| spellingShingle | Özlem Kaymaz Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences box-jenkins methods forecast sarima time series winters exponential smoothing method |
| title | Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods |
| title_full | Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods |
| title_short | Forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box-jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods |
| title_sort | forecasting of commercial egg production in turkey with box jenkins and winters exponential smoothing methods |
| topic | box-jenkins methods forecast sarima time series winters exponential smoothing method |
| url | http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1212 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ozlemkaymaz forecastingofcommercialeggproductioninturkeywithboxjenkinsandwintersexponentialsmoothingmethods |