Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway
Abstract Globally, climate change greatly impacts the production of major crops, and there have been many attempts to model future yields under warming scenarios in recent years. However, projections of future yields may not be generalisable to all crop growing regions, particularly those with diver...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30813-7 |
| _version_ | 1797865023047991296 |
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| author | Shirin Mohammadi Knut Rydgren Vegar Bakkestuen Mark A. K. Gillespie |
| author_facet | Shirin Mohammadi Knut Rydgren Vegar Bakkestuen Mark A. K. Gillespie |
| author_sort | Shirin Mohammadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Globally, climate change greatly impacts the production of major crops, and there have been many attempts to model future yields under warming scenarios in recent years. However, projections of future yields may not be generalisable to all crop growing regions, particularly those with diverse topography and bioclimates. In this study, we demonstrate this by evaluating the links between changes in temperature and precipitation and changes in wheat, barley, and potato yields at the county-level during 1980–2019 in Norway, a Nordic country with a range of climates across a relatively small spatial scale. The results show that the impacts of climate variables on yield vary widely by county, and that for some crops, the strength and direction of the link depends on underlying local bioclimate. In addition, our analysis demonstrates the need for some counties to focus on weather changes during specific crucial months corresponding with certain crop growth stages. Furthermore, due to the local climatic conditions and varying projected climate changes, different production opportunities are likely to occur in each county. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:01:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1a4ae85a99444445b0e098594f33f63d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:01:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-1a4ae85a99444445b0e098594f33f63d2023-03-22T10:56:03ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-03-0113111210.1038/s41598-023-30813-7Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of NorwayShirin Mohammadi0Knut Rydgren1Vegar Bakkestuen2Mark A. K. Gillespie3Department of Environmental Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied SciencesDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied SciencesNorwegian Institute for Nature ResearchDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied SciencesAbstract Globally, climate change greatly impacts the production of major crops, and there have been many attempts to model future yields under warming scenarios in recent years. However, projections of future yields may not be generalisable to all crop growing regions, particularly those with diverse topography and bioclimates. In this study, we demonstrate this by evaluating the links between changes in temperature and precipitation and changes in wheat, barley, and potato yields at the county-level during 1980–2019 in Norway, a Nordic country with a range of climates across a relatively small spatial scale. The results show that the impacts of climate variables on yield vary widely by county, and that for some crops, the strength and direction of the link depends on underlying local bioclimate. In addition, our analysis demonstrates the need for some counties to focus on weather changes during specific crucial months corresponding with certain crop growth stages. Furthermore, due to the local climatic conditions and varying projected climate changes, different production opportunities are likely to occur in each county.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30813-7 |
| spellingShingle | Shirin Mohammadi Knut Rydgren Vegar Bakkestuen Mark A. K. Gillespie Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway Scientific Reports |
| title | Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway |
| title_full | Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway |
| title_short | Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway |
| title_sort | impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of norway |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30813-7 |
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