Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030?
Abstract Background The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduct...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2017-07-01
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| Series: | BMC Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-017-0894-5 |
| _version_ | 1811263669440348160 |
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| author | Yichong Li Xinying Zeng Jiangmei Liu Yunning Liu Shiwei Liu Peng Yin Jinlei Qi Zhenping Zhao Shicheng Yu Yuehua Hu Guangxue He Alan D. Lopez George F. Gao Linhong Wang Maigeng Zhou |
| author_facet | Yichong Li Xinying Zeng Jiangmei Liu Yunning Liu Shiwei Liu Peng Yin Jinlei Qi Zhenping Zhao Shicheng Yu Yuehua Hu Guangxue He Alan D. Lopez George F. Gao Linhong Wang Maigeng Zhou |
| author_sort | Yichong Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduction scenarios. Methods We used China results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 as empirical data for projections. Deaths between 1990 and 2013 for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and other NCDs were extracted, along with population numbers. We disaggregated deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, high body mass index (BMI), high total cholesterol, physical inactivity, and high fasting glucose. Risk factor exposure and deaths by NCD category were projected to 2030. Eight simulated scenarios were also constructed to explore how premature mortality will be affected if the World Health Organization’s targets for risk factors reduction are achieved by 2030. Results If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from NCDs would increase from 3.11 million to 3.52 million, but the premature mortality rate would decrease by 13.1%. In the combined scenario in which all risk factor reduction targets are achieved, nearly one million deaths among persons 30 to 70 years old due to NCDs would be avoided, and the one-third reduction goal would be achieved for all NCDs combined. More specifically, the goal would be achieved for CVD and chronic respiratory diseases, but not for cancer and diabetes. Reduction in the prevalence of high SBP, smoking, and high BMI played an important role in achieving the goals. Conclusions Reaching the goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from NCDs is possible by 2030 if certain targets for risk factor intervention are reached, but more efforts are required to achieve risk factor reduction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:48:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1a5a2574a4e647498a1a4aa4415a47c1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1741-7015 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:48:21Z |
| publishDate | 2017-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-1a5a2574a4e647498a1a4aa4415a47c12022-12-22T03:18:53ZengBMCBMC Medicine1741-70152017-07-0115111110.1186/s12916-017-0894-5Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030?Yichong Li0Xinying Zeng1Jiangmei Liu2Yunning Liu3Shiwei Liu4Peng Yin5Jinlei Qi6Zhenping Zhao7Shicheng Yu8Yuehua Hu9Guangxue He10Alan D. Lopez11George F. Gao12Linhong Wang13Maigeng Zhou14National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of MelbourneChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionAbstract Background The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduction scenarios. Methods We used China results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 as empirical data for projections. Deaths between 1990 and 2013 for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and other NCDs were extracted, along with population numbers. We disaggregated deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, high body mass index (BMI), high total cholesterol, physical inactivity, and high fasting glucose. Risk factor exposure and deaths by NCD category were projected to 2030. Eight simulated scenarios were also constructed to explore how premature mortality will be affected if the World Health Organization’s targets for risk factors reduction are achieved by 2030. Results If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from NCDs would increase from 3.11 million to 3.52 million, but the premature mortality rate would decrease by 13.1%. In the combined scenario in which all risk factor reduction targets are achieved, nearly one million deaths among persons 30 to 70 years old due to NCDs would be avoided, and the one-third reduction goal would be achieved for all NCDs combined. More specifically, the goal would be achieved for CVD and chronic respiratory diseases, but not for cancer and diabetes. Reduction in the prevalence of high SBP, smoking, and high BMI played an important role in achieving the goals. Conclusions Reaching the goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from NCDs is possible by 2030 if certain targets for risk factor intervention are reached, but more efforts are required to achieve risk factor reduction.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-017-0894-5Chronic diseaseMortality, PrematureForecastingRisk factors |
| spellingShingle | Yichong Li Xinying Zeng Jiangmei Liu Yunning Liu Shiwei Liu Peng Yin Jinlei Qi Zhenping Zhao Shicheng Yu Yuehua Hu Guangxue He Alan D. Lopez George F. Gao Linhong Wang Maigeng Zhou Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030? BMC Medicine Chronic disease Mortality, Premature Forecasting Risk factors |
| title | Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030? |
| title_full | Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030? |
| title_fullStr | Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030? |
| title_short | Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030? |
| title_sort | can china achieve a one third reduction in premature mortality from non communicable diseases by 2030 |
| topic | Chronic disease Mortality, Premature Forecasting Risk factors |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-017-0894-5 |
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