Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
<p>The assessment of uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling in a changing environment is an important, yet often neglected, task. In an Austrian case study, we investigated the uncertainty cascade in storylines of landslide susceptibility emerging from climate change and parametri...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/205/2023/nhess-23-205-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797950558442618880 |
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| author | R. Knevels H. Petschko H. Proske P. Leopold A. N. Mishra D. Maraun A. Brenning |
| author_facet | R. Knevels H. Petschko H. Proske P. Leopold A. N. Mishra D. Maraun A. Brenning |
| author_sort | R. Knevels |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The assessment of uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling in a changing environment is an important, yet often neglected, task. In an Austrian case study, we investigated the uncertainty cascade in storylines of landslide susceptibility emerging from climate change and parametric landslide model uncertainty. In June 2009, extreme events of heavy thunderstorms occurred in the Styrian Basin, triggering thousands of landslides. Using a storyline approach, we discovered a generally lower landslide susceptibility for the pre-industrial climate, while for the future climate (2071–2100) a potential increase of 35 % in highly susceptible areas (storyline of much heavier rain) may be compensated for by much drier soils (<span class="inline-formula">−</span>45 % areas highly susceptible to landsliding). However, the estimated uncertainties in predictions were generally high. While uncertainties related to within-event internal climate model variability were substantially lower than parametric uncertainties in the landslide susceptibility model (ratio of around 0.25), parametric uncertainties were of the same order as the climate scenario uncertainty for the higher warming levels (<span class="inline-formula">+3</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+4</span> K). We suggest that in future uncertainty assessments, an improved availability of event-based landslide inventories and high-resolution soil and precipitation data will help to reduce parametric uncertainties in landslide susceptibility models used to assess the impacts of climate change on landslide hazard and risk.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T22:17:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1a60e0e0bed140f4859bb470c0c3bfaa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T22:17:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-1a60e0e0bed140f4859bb470c0c3bfaa2023-01-18T07:19:33ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812023-01-012320522910.5194/nhess-23-205-2023Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)R. Knevels0H. Petschko1H. Proske2P. Leopold3A. N. Mishra4D. Maraun5A. Brenning6Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, 07743 Jena, GermanyDepartment of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, 07743 Jena, GermanyRemote Sensing and Geoinformation Department, JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Graz, 8010, AustriaCenter for Low-Emission Transport, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Vienna, 1210, AustriaWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Graz, 8010, AustriaWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Graz, 8010, AustriaDepartment of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, 07743 Jena, Germany<p>The assessment of uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modelling in a changing environment is an important, yet often neglected, task. In an Austrian case study, we investigated the uncertainty cascade in storylines of landslide susceptibility emerging from climate change and parametric landslide model uncertainty. In June 2009, extreme events of heavy thunderstorms occurred in the Styrian Basin, triggering thousands of landslides. Using a storyline approach, we discovered a generally lower landslide susceptibility for the pre-industrial climate, while for the future climate (2071–2100) a potential increase of 35 % in highly susceptible areas (storyline of much heavier rain) may be compensated for by much drier soils (<span class="inline-formula">−</span>45 % areas highly susceptible to landsliding). However, the estimated uncertainties in predictions were generally high. While uncertainties related to within-event internal climate model variability were substantially lower than parametric uncertainties in the landslide susceptibility model (ratio of around 0.25), parametric uncertainties were of the same order as the climate scenario uncertainty for the higher warming levels (<span class="inline-formula">+3</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+4</span> K). We suggest that in future uncertainty assessments, an improved availability of event-based landslide inventories and high-resolution soil and precipitation data will help to reduce parametric uncertainties in landslide susceptibility models used to assess the impacts of climate change on landslide hazard and risk.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/205/2023/nhess-23-205-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | R. Knevels H. Petschko H. Proske P. Leopold A. N. Mishra D. Maraun A. Brenning Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria) |
| title_full | Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria) |
| title_fullStr | Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria) |
| title_short | Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria) |
| title_sort | assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment styrian basin austria |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/205/2023/nhess-23-205-2023.pdf |
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