From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term
We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged fr...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2010-05-01
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| Series: | Diversity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/2/5/738/ |
| _version_ | 1817993670001950720 |
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| author | Tracy R. Holcombe Thomas J. Stohlgren Catherine S. Jarnevich |
| author_facet | Tracy R. Holcombe Thomas J. Stohlgren Catherine S. Jarnevich |
| author_sort | Tracy R. Holcombe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:42:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1a6d3b9465134a169140095ecce2aa69 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1424-2818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:42:52Z |
| publishDate | 2010-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diversity |
| spelling | doaj.art-1a6d3b9465134a169140095ecce2aa692022-12-22T02:19:39ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182010-05-012573876710.3390/d2050738From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near TermTracy R. HolcombeThomas J. StohlgrenCatherine S. JarnevichWe used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2.http://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/2/5/738/climate changeinvasive speciesmaximum entropy modelingrange shifts |
| spellingShingle | Tracy R. Holcombe Thomas J. Stohlgren Catherine S. Jarnevich From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term Diversity climate change invasive species maximum entropy modeling range shifts |
| title | From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term |
| title_full | From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term |
| title_fullStr | From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term |
| title_full_unstemmed | From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term |
| title_short | From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term |
| title_sort | from points to forecasts predicting invasive species habitat suitability in the near term |
| topic | climate change invasive species maximum entropy modeling range shifts |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/2/5/738/ |
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