Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models
Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/90 |
| _version_ | 1797414309854183424 |
|---|---|
| author | Hyun Min Sung Jisun Kim Jae-Hee Lee Sungbo Shim Kyung-On Boo Jong-Chul Ha Yeon-Hee Kim |
| author_facet | Hyun Min Sung Jisun Kim Jae-Hee Lee Sungbo Shim Kyung-On Boo Jong-Chul Ha Yeon-Hee Kim |
| author_sort | Hyun Min Sung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios and nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations are used to estimate the changes in SLR and SST. At the end of the 21st century, global SLR is expected to be 0.28 m (0.17–0.38 m) and 0.65 m (0.52–0.78 m) for SSP 1–2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Regional change around the Korean peninsula (0.25 m (0.15–0.35 m; SSP1-2.6) and 0.63 m (0.50–0.76 m; SSP5-8.5)) is similar with global SLR. The discrepancy between global and regional changes is distinct in SST warming rather than SLR. For SSP5-8.5, SST around the Korean peninsula projects is to rise from 0.49 °C to 0.59 °C per decade, which is larger than the global SST trend (0.39 °C per decade). Considering this, the difference of regional SST change is related to the local ocean current change, such as the Kuroshio Current. Additionally, ocean thermal expansion and glacier melting are major contributors to SLR, and the contribution rates of glacier melting increase in higher emission scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:30:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1a7871cf1a4f4a2c8271fead1271c82a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:30:58Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-1a7871cf1a4f4a2c8271fead1271c82a2023-12-03T12:32:16ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-01-011219010.3390/atmos12010090Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 ModelsHyun Min Sung0Jisun Kim1Jae-Hee Lee2Sungbo Shim3Kyung-On Boo4Jong-Chul Ha5Yeon-Hee Kim6Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, Jeju 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, Jeju 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, Jeju 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, Jeju 63568, KoreaOperational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, Jeju 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, Jeju 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, Jeju 63568, KoreaEstimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios and nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations are used to estimate the changes in SLR and SST. At the end of the 21st century, global SLR is expected to be 0.28 m (0.17–0.38 m) and 0.65 m (0.52–0.78 m) for SSP 1–2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Regional change around the Korean peninsula (0.25 m (0.15–0.35 m; SSP1-2.6) and 0.63 m (0.50–0.76 m; SSP5-8.5)) is similar with global SLR. The discrepancy between global and regional changes is distinct in SST warming rather than SLR. For SSP5-8.5, SST around the Korean peninsula projects is to rise from 0.49 °C to 0.59 °C per decade, which is larger than the global SST trend (0.39 °C per decade). Considering this, the difference of regional SST change is related to the local ocean current change, such as the Kuroshio Current. Additionally, ocean thermal expansion and glacier melting are major contributors to SLR, and the contribution rates of glacier melting increase in higher emission scenarios.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/90CMIP6sea level risesea surface temperatureclimate changeclimate scenario |
| spellingShingle | Hyun Min Sung Jisun Kim Jae-Hee Lee Sungbo Shim Kyung-On Boo Jong-Chul Ha Yeon-Hee Kim Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models Atmosphere CMIP6 sea level rise sea surface temperature climate change climate scenario |
| title | Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models |
| title_full | Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models |
| title_fullStr | Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models |
| title_short | Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models |
| title_sort | future changes in the global and regional sea level rise and sea surface temperature based on cmip6 models |
| topic | CMIP6 sea level rise sea surface temperature climate change climate scenario |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/90 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hyunminsung futurechangesintheglobalandregionalsealevelriseandseasurfacetemperaturebasedoncmip6models AT jisunkim futurechangesintheglobalandregionalsealevelriseandseasurfacetemperaturebasedoncmip6models AT jaeheelee futurechangesintheglobalandregionalsealevelriseandseasurfacetemperaturebasedoncmip6models AT sungboshim futurechangesintheglobalandregionalsealevelriseandseasurfacetemperaturebasedoncmip6models AT kyungonboo futurechangesintheglobalandregionalsealevelriseandseasurfacetemperaturebasedoncmip6models AT jongchulha futurechangesintheglobalandregionalsealevelriseandseasurfacetemperaturebasedoncmip6models AT yeonheekim futurechangesintheglobalandregionalsealevelriseandseasurfacetemperaturebasedoncmip6models |