Declinul demografic al României: ce perspective?
Between 1992 and 2002 Romania's population decreased with 1.1 million habitants. The downward movement cannot be a surprising evolution, as all available statistical data on natural increase and net migration after 1989 defined a well-installed population decline. The unexpected face is the mag...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Expert Projects
2004-05-01
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| Series: | Sociologie Românească |
| Online Access: | https://arsociologie.ro/revistasociologieromaneasca/sr/article/view/962 |
| Summary: | Between 1992 and 2002 Romania's population decreased with 1.1 million habitants. The downward movement cannot be a surprising evolution, as all available statistical data on natural increase and net migration after 1989 defined a well-installed population decline. The unexpected face is the magnitude of the decrease and the contribution played by a new and less statistically known, till now, component of international migration the Romanians being abroad and not registered at the population census of March 2002. From that perspective, the population decline acquires new dimensions and amplifies the country's demographic situation deterioration. But, what is less known and underestimated, when speaking about that deterioration, is the seriousness of population age structure degradation in the context of population decline and its implications from the point of view of an eventual (but desired) improvement of the demographic state of the country. That is exactly what the present study aims at in analyzing Romania's demography at the beginning of this new century and the prospects of the present situation. In the first part of the paper, past and present trends of fertility, mortality and international migration are thoroughly stated, almost exclusively from the point of view of the way and the extent to which major changes regarding the level and the structure of these phenomena could contribute to the reduction of demographic deterioration ampleness and, on long term, to the population decline stoppage. The present demographic developments and the characteristicsof the main demographic components responsible for these (past and present) developments prefigure a more than bleak canvas of the Romanian population during the next decades, if a substantial change doesn't occur at the level of the crucial component of age structure deterioration fertility. The second part of the study represents a prospective view of the Romanian population in the first half of this century. The assumptions and the results of a set of population projections are discussed. Two of the three scenarios are built following a normative approach and relieve the changes fertility and mortality should meet in the frame of a population policy firmly oriented to diminish the present population downfall. |
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| ISSN: | 1220-5389 2668-1455 |