Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains
An extreme heatwave, in terms of intensity and duration, is projected to occur at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) over the whole of East Asia. The projection is calculated using daily maximum temperature data of 25 km horizontal resolution produced by 12 general circulation model-regional cl...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb727 |
| _version_ | 1797747357576593408 |
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| author | Young-Hyun Kim Joong-Bae Ahn Myoung-Seok Suh Dong-Hyun Cha Eun-Chul Chang Seung-Ki Min Young-Hwa Byun Jin-Uk Kim |
| author_facet | Young-Hyun Kim Joong-Bae Ahn Myoung-Seok Suh Dong-Hyun Cha Eun-Chul Chang Seung-Ki Min Young-Hwa Byun Jin-Uk Kim |
| author_sort | Young-Hyun Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An extreme heatwave, in terms of intensity and duration, is projected to occur at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) over the whole of East Asia. The projection is calculated using daily maximum temperature data of 25 km horizontal resolution produced by 12 general circulation model-regional climate model chains participating in the CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2 project. An ‘extreme’ heatwave is defined as one in which the heatwave magnitude (HWM), which is the accumulated daily intensity of a heatwave during the heatwave period, is higher than the 95th percentile of the HWM for the reference period (1981–2005). In historical simulations, heatwaves have occurred mainly from April to June in India, in April and May in Indochina, from June to August in China and Mongolia, and in July and August in the Korean Peninsula and Japan; most heatwaves last three to four days. In India and Indochina, long-lasting and intense heatwaves occur more often than in other regions. In future, heatwave intensity will increase, the average duration of heatwaves will be approximately two to three weeks, and the heatwave season will be lengthened. Therefore, extreme heatwaves will occur more frequently and strongly. Under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), the proportion of extreme heatwaves to all heatwave events will increase from 5.0% (historical) to 8.0%, 20.8%, 19.3%, and 36.3%, and the HWM of the extreme heatwave will be 1.4, 3.5, 3.0, and 9.0 times stronger, respectively. The main reason for the increase in the HWM of extreme heatwaves is the increased duration rather than the daily intensity of the heatwaves. In East Asia, the temporal and regional disparities of heatwave damage will be much more prominent as extreme heatwaves become stronger and more frequent in these regions and during the periods that are more affected by heatwaves in the present day. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1aa973a8f92e4f30be601e1be066600b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
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| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-1aa973a8f92e4f30be601e1be066600b2023-08-09T15:13:12ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118303400710.1088/1748-9326/acb727Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chainsYoung-Hyun Kim0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6046-3873Joong-Bae Ahn1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6958-2801Myoung-Seok Suh2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3827-0044Dong-Hyun Cha3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5053-6741Eun-Chul Chang4Seung-Ki Min5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6749-010XYoung-Hwa Byun6Jin-Uk Kim7Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University , Busan, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University , Busan, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University , Gongju, Republic of KoreaSchool of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology , Ulsan, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University , Gongju, Republic of KoreaDivision of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology , Pohang, Republic of KoreaClimate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences , Jeju, Republic of KoreaClimate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences , Jeju, Republic of KoreaAn extreme heatwave, in terms of intensity and duration, is projected to occur at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) over the whole of East Asia. The projection is calculated using daily maximum temperature data of 25 km horizontal resolution produced by 12 general circulation model-regional climate model chains participating in the CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2 project. An ‘extreme’ heatwave is defined as one in which the heatwave magnitude (HWM), which is the accumulated daily intensity of a heatwave during the heatwave period, is higher than the 95th percentile of the HWM for the reference period (1981–2005). In historical simulations, heatwaves have occurred mainly from April to June in India, in April and May in Indochina, from June to August in China and Mongolia, and in July and August in the Korean Peninsula and Japan; most heatwaves last three to four days. In India and Indochina, long-lasting and intense heatwaves occur more often than in other regions. In future, heatwave intensity will increase, the average duration of heatwaves will be approximately two to three weeks, and the heatwave season will be lengthened. Therefore, extreme heatwaves will occur more frequently and strongly. Under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), the proportion of extreme heatwaves to all heatwave events will increase from 5.0% (historical) to 8.0%, 20.8%, 19.3%, and 36.3%, and the HWM of the extreme heatwave will be 1.4, 3.5, 3.0, and 9.0 times stronger, respectively. The main reason for the increase in the HWM of extreme heatwaves is the increased duration rather than the daily intensity of the heatwaves. In East Asia, the temporal and regional disparities of heatwave damage will be much more prominent as extreme heatwaves become stronger and more frequent in these regions and during the periods that are more affected by heatwaves in the present day.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb727heatwavesmulti-GCM and multi-RCM chainsrepresentative concentration pathways (RCPs)shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)CMIP5CMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Young-Hyun Kim Joong-Bae Ahn Myoung-Seok Suh Dong-Hyun Cha Eun-Chul Chang Seung-Ki Min Young-Hwa Byun Jin-Uk Kim Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains Environmental Research Letters heatwaves multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains representative concentration pathways (RCPs) shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) CMIP5 CMIP6 |
| title | Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains |
| title_full | Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains |
| title_fullStr | Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains |
| title_short | Future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase Two domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains |
| title_sort | future changes in extreme heatwaves in terms of intensity and duration over the cordex east asia phase two domain using multi gcm and multi rcm chains |
| topic | heatwaves multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains representative concentration pathways (RCPs) shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) CMIP5 CMIP6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb727 |
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