A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios
Study region: The Bas-Loukkos catchment, a Mediterranean catchment in northern Morocco exposed to growing water withdrawal caused mainly by agricultural development. Study focus: For adaptation to climate change, water managers have to consider the high and various uncertainties. To assess impacts o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001520 |
| _version_ | 1797784812909494272 |
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| author | Youness Hrour Ophélie Fovet Guillaume Lacombe Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin Karima Sebari Pascal Pichelin Zahra Thomas |
| author_facet | Youness Hrour Ophélie Fovet Guillaume Lacombe Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin Karima Sebari Pascal Pichelin Zahra Thomas |
| author_sort | Youness Hrour |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The Bas-Loukkos catchment, a Mediterranean catchment in northern Morocco exposed to growing water withdrawal caused mainly by agricultural development. Study focus: For adaptation to climate change, water managers have to consider the high and various uncertainties. To assess impacts of climate change on projected water resources, this study aimed to develop a smart analysis framework to provide scientific information by exploring the complexity of many projections combined with hydrological models. Uncertainties were quantified using 13 pair-wise combinations of 5 regional climate models forced by 4 global climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), data with and without bias correction (using empirical quantile mapping), and two sets of GR2M hydrological model parameters corresponding to different precipitation conditions. The Budyko hypothesis was used to analyse combined effects of climate change on water resources according to water-withdrawal scenarios. Climate and hydrological projections have been analyzed over three periods: short-term [2020–2040], medium-term [2041–2060] and long-term [2081–2100]. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from all simulations indicate that, in the long term (2081–2100), precipitation and discharge will decrease by ca. 21–38% and ca. 50–71%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1981–2005). Consequently, this decline in water resources will require water management strategies to adapt to the future climatic conditions and water demand. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:46:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1ad4ffea730f431686171bb76e958ff4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:46:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-1ad4ffea730f431686171bb76e958ff42023-07-09T04:21:59ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182023-08-0148101465A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenariosYouness Hrour0Ophélie Fovet1Guillaume Lacombe2Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin3Karima Sebari4Pascal Pichelin5Zahra Thomas6Institut Agro, INRAE, SAS, F-35000 Rennes, France; Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II, Département du Génie Rural, Rabat, MoroccoInstitut Agro, INRAE, SAS, F-35000 Rennes, FranceInstitut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II, Département du Génie Rural, Rabat, Morocco; CIRAD, UMR G-EAU, 73 rue JF Breton, F-34398 Montpellier, FranceInstitut Agro, INRAE, SAS, F-35000 Rennes, France; Univ Rennes, EHESP, Rennes, FranceInstitut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II, Département du Génie Rural, Rabat, MoroccoInstitut Agro, INRAE, SAS, F-35000 Rennes, FranceInstitut Agro, INRAE, SAS, F-35000 Rennes, France; Corresponding author.Study region: The Bas-Loukkos catchment, a Mediterranean catchment in northern Morocco exposed to growing water withdrawal caused mainly by agricultural development. Study focus: For adaptation to climate change, water managers have to consider the high and various uncertainties. To assess impacts of climate change on projected water resources, this study aimed to develop a smart analysis framework to provide scientific information by exploring the complexity of many projections combined with hydrological models. Uncertainties were quantified using 13 pair-wise combinations of 5 regional climate models forced by 4 global climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), data with and without bias correction (using empirical quantile mapping), and two sets of GR2M hydrological model parameters corresponding to different precipitation conditions. The Budyko hypothesis was used to analyse combined effects of climate change on water resources according to water-withdrawal scenarios. Climate and hydrological projections have been analyzed over three periods: short-term [2020–2040], medium-term [2041–2060] and long-term [2081–2100]. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from all simulations indicate that, in the long term (2081–2100), precipitation and discharge will decrease by ca. 21–38% and ca. 50–71%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1981–2005). Consequently, this decline in water resources will require water management strategies to adapt to the future climatic conditions and water demand.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001520Global and regional climate projectionsHydrological GR2M modelBudyko hypothesisMediterranean catchmentUncertaintyEURO-CORDEX |
| spellingShingle | Youness Hrour Ophélie Fovet Guillaume Lacombe Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin Karima Sebari Pascal Pichelin Zahra Thomas A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Global and regional climate projections Hydrological GR2M model Budyko hypothesis Mediterranean catchment Uncertainty EURO-CORDEX |
| title | A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios |
| title_full | A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios |
| title_fullStr | A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios |
| title_short | A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios |
| title_sort | framework to assess future water resource under climate change in northern morocco using hydro climatic modelling and water withdrawal scenarios |
| topic | Global and regional climate projections Hydrological GR2M model Budyko hypothesis Mediterranean catchment Uncertainty EURO-CORDEX |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001520 |
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