Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output
A method to prepare a set of four climate scenarios for the Netherlands is presented. These scenarios for climate change in 2050 and 2085 (compared to present-day) are intended for general use in climate change adaptation in the Netherlands. An ensemble of eight simulations with the global model EC-...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115008 |
| _version_ | 1797748043404017664 |
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| author | G Lenderink B J J M van den Hurk A M G Klein Tank G J van Oldenborgh E van Meijgaard H de Vries J J Beersma |
| author_facet | G Lenderink B J J M van den Hurk A M G Klein Tank G J van Oldenborgh E van Meijgaard H de Vries J J Beersma |
| author_sort | G Lenderink |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A method to prepare a set of four climate scenarios for the Netherlands is presented. These scenarios for climate change in 2050 and 2085 (compared to present-day) are intended for general use in climate change adaptation in the Netherlands. An ensemble of eight simulations with the global model EC-Earth and the regional climate model RACMO2 (run at 12 km resolution) is used. For each scenario time horizon, two target values of the global mean temperature rise are chosen based on the spread in the CMIP5 simulations. Next, the corresponding time periods in the EC-Earth/RACMO2 simulations are selected in which these target values of the global temperature rise are reached. The model output for these periods is then resampled using blocks of 5 yr periods. The rationale of resampling is that natural variations in the EC-Earth/RACMO2 ensemble are used to represent (part of the) uncertainty in the CMIP5 projections. Samples are then chosen with the aim of reconstructing the spread in seasonal temperature and precipitation changes in CMIP5 for the Netherlands. These selected samples form the basis of the scenarios. The resulting four scenarios represent 50–80% of the CMIP5 spread for summer and winter changes in seasonal means as well as a limited number of monthly statistics (warm, cold, wet and dry months). The strong point of the method—also in relation to the previous set of the climate scenarios for the Netherlands issued in 2006—is that it preserves nearly all physical inter-variable consistencies as they exist in the original model output in both space and time. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1b084bca564f4a5fb69b00a45553a26b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:19Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-1b084bca564f4a5fb69b00a45553a26b2023-08-09T14:41:12ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-0191111500810.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115008Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model outputG Lenderink0B J J M van den Hurk1A M G Klein Tank2G J van Oldenborgh3E van Meijgaard4H de Vries5J J Beersma6Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The NetherlandsA method to prepare a set of four climate scenarios for the Netherlands is presented. These scenarios for climate change in 2050 and 2085 (compared to present-day) are intended for general use in climate change adaptation in the Netherlands. An ensemble of eight simulations with the global model EC-Earth and the regional climate model RACMO2 (run at 12 km resolution) is used. For each scenario time horizon, two target values of the global mean temperature rise are chosen based on the spread in the CMIP5 simulations. Next, the corresponding time periods in the EC-Earth/RACMO2 simulations are selected in which these target values of the global temperature rise are reached. The model output for these periods is then resampled using blocks of 5 yr periods. The rationale of resampling is that natural variations in the EC-Earth/RACMO2 ensemble are used to represent (part of the) uncertainty in the CMIP5 projections. Samples are then chosen with the aim of reconstructing the spread in seasonal temperature and precipitation changes in CMIP5 for the Netherlands. These selected samples form the basis of the scenarios. The resulting four scenarios represent 50–80% of the CMIP5 spread for summer and winter changes in seasonal means as well as a limited number of monthly statistics (warm, cold, wet and dry months). The strong point of the method—also in relation to the previous set of the climate scenarios for the Netherlands issued in 2006—is that it preserves nearly all physical inter-variable consistencies as they exist in the original model output in both space and time.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115008climate scenariosprecipitation changetemperature changeregional downscaling |
| spellingShingle | G Lenderink B J J M van den Hurk A M G Klein Tank G J van Oldenborgh E van Meijgaard H de Vries J J Beersma Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output Environmental Research Letters climate scenarios precipitation change temperature change regional downscaling |
| title | Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output |
| title_full | Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output |
| title_fullStr | Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output |
| title_full_unstemmed | Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output |
| title_short | Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output |
| title_sort | preparing local climate change scenarios for the netherlands using resampling of climate model output |
| topic | climate scenarios precipitation change temperature change regional downscaling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115008 |
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