An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan
In Taiwan, mountainous areas account for approximately two-thirds of the total area. The steep terrain and concentrated rainfall during typhoons cause landslides, which pose a considerable threat to mountain settlements. Therefore, models for analyzing rainfall-induced landslide hazards are urgently...
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MDPI AG
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/7/1038 |
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| author | Chih-Ming Tseng Yie-Ruey Chen Ching-Ya Tsai Shun-Chieh Hsieh |
| author_facet | Chih-Ming Tseng Yie-Ruey Chen Ching-Ya Tsai Shun-Chieh Hsieh |
| author_sort | Chih-Ming Tseng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In Taiwan, mountainous areas account for approximately two-thirds of the total area. The steep terrain and concentrated rainfall during typhoons cause landslides, which pose a considerable threat to mountain settlements. Therefore, models for analyzing rainfall-induced landslide hazards are urgently required to ensure adequate land use in mountainous areas. In this study, focusing on Pingtung County in southern Taiwan, we developed a landslide hazard index (<i>I<sub>RL</sub></i>) to land use. Using FORMOSA-2 and SPOT-5 satellite images, data were collected before and after four typhoons (one in 2009 and three in 2013). The ArcGIS random tree classifier was used for interpreting satellite images to explore surface changes and disasters, which were used to analyze slope disturbances. The product of the maximum 3-h rolling rainfall intensity and effective accumulated rainfall was used as a rainfall trigger index (<i>I</i><sub>RT</sub>). Considering environmental and slope disturbance factors, an index of slope environmental strength potential (<i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i>) was developed through logistic regression (LR). Landslide hazard to land use was estimated using <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> and <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i>. The average coefficient of agreement (Kappa) was approximately 0.71 (medium to high accuracy); the overall accuracy of slope environmental strength potential analysis was approximately 80.4%. At a constant <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i>, <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> increased with the increasing hazard potential of rainfall-induced landslides. Furthermore, <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> and <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i> were positively correlated with landslide occurrence. When large <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i> values occur (e.g., fragile environment and high land development intensity), small <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> values may induce landslides. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:33:11Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:33:11Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
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| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-1b4e655ea4744d37b4b84eb1be3f5caf2024-04-12T13:27:15ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412024-04-01167103810.3390/w16071038An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern TaiwanChih-Ming Tseng0Yie-Ruey Chen1Ching-Ya Tsai2Shun-Chieh Hsieh3Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701401, TaiwanDepartment of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan 711301, TaiwanDisaster Prevention Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701401, TaiwanDepartment of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan 711301, TaiwanIn Taiwan, mountainous areas account for approximately two-thirds of the total area. The steep terrain and concentrated rainfall during typhoons cause landslides, which pose a considerable threat to mountain settlements. Therefore, models for analyzing rainfall-induced landslide hazards are urgently required to ensure adequate land use in mountainous areas. In this study, focusing on Pingtung County in southern Taiwan, we developed a landslide hazard index (<i>I<sub>RL</sub></i>) to land use. Using FORMOSA-2 and SPOT-5 satellite images, data were collected before and after four typhoons (one in 2009 and three in 2013). The ArcGIS random tree classifier was used for interpreting satellite images to explore surface changes and disasters, which were used to analyze slope disturbances. The product of the maximum 3-h rolling rainfall intensity and effective accumulated rainfall was used as a rainfall trigger index (<i>I</i><sub>RT</sub>). Considering environmental and slope disturbance factors, an index of slope environmental strength potential (<i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i>) was developed through logistic regression (LR). Landslide hazard to land use was estimated using <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> and <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i>. The average coefficient of agreement (Kappa) was approximately 0.71 (medium to high accuracy); the overall accuracy of slope environmental strength potential analysis was approximately 80.4%. At a constant <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i>, <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> increased with the increasing hazard potential of rainfall-induced landslides. Furthermore, <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> and <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i> were positively correlated with landslide occurrence. When large <i>I<sub>SESP</sub></i> values occur (e.g., fragile environment and high land development intensity), small <i>I</i><sub>RT</sub> values may induce landslides.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/7/1038land usemountainous arearainfalllandslide hazardrandom tree classifierlogistic regression |
| spellingShingle | Chih-Ming Tseng Yie-Ruey Chen Ching-Ya Tsai Shun-Chieh Hsieh An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan Water land use mountainous area rainfall landslide hazard random tree classifier logistic regression |
| title | An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan |
| title_full | An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan |
| title_fullStr | An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan |
| title_short | An Integration of Logistic Regression and Geographic Information System for Development of a Landslide Hazard Index to Land Use: A Case Study in Pingtung County in Southern Taiwan |
| title_sort | integration of logistic regression and geographic information system for development of a landslide hazard index to land use a case study in pingtung county in southern taiwan |
| topic | land use mountainous area rainfall landslide hazard random tree classifier logistic regression |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/7/1038 |
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