Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China.
Shigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2014-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3988114?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818163048454553600 |
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| author | Tianmu Chen Ross Ka-Kit Leung Zi Zhou Ruchun Liu Xixing Zhang Lijie Zhang |
| author_facet | Tianmu Chen Ross Ka-Kit Leung Zi Zhou Ruchun Liu Xixing Zhang Lijie Zhang |
| author_sort | Tianmu Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Shigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarce. To estimate the efficacy of commonly used intervention strategies, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered-Water model. No intervention was predicted to result in a total attack rate (TAR) of 90% of the affected population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.65-92.80) and duration of outbreak (DO) of 89 days, and the use of single-intervention strategies can be futile or even counter-productive. Prophylactics and water disinfection did not improve TAR or DO. School closure for up to 3 weeks did not help but only increased DO. Isolation alone significantly increased DO. Only antibiotics treatment could shorten the DO to 35 days with TAR unaffected. We observed that these intervention effects were additive when in combined usage under most circumstances. Combined intervention "Isolation+antibiotics+prophylactics+water disinfection" was predicted to result in the lowest TAR (41.9%, 95%CI: 36.97-47.04%) and shortest DO (28 days). Our actual Shigellosis control implementation that also included school closure for 1 week, attained comparable results and the modeling produced an epidemic curve of Shigellosis highly similar to our actual outbreak data. This lends a strong support to the reality of our model that provides a possible reference for public health professionals to evaluate their strategies towards Shigellosis control. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T16:43:22Z |
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| id | doaj.art-1b631ad09cb44152a94ec7c7cf8dc834 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T16:43:22Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-1b631ad09cb44152a94ec7c7cf8dc8342022-12-22T00:58:16ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032014-01-0194e9500610.1371/journal.pone.0095006Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China.Tianmu ChenRoss Ka-Kit LeungZi ZhouRuchun LiuXixing ZhangLijie ZhangShigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarce. To estimate the efficacy of commonly used intervention strategies, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered-Water model. No intervention was predicted to result in a total attack rate (TAR) of 90% of the affected population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.65-92.80) and duration of outbreak (DO) of 89 days, and the use of single-intervention strategies can be futile or even counter-productive. Prophylactics and water disinfection did not improve TAR or DO. School closure for up to 3 weeks did not help but only increased DO. Isolation alone significantly increased DO. Only antibiotics treatment could shorten the DO to 35 days with TAR unaffected. We observed that these intervention effects were additive when in combined usage under most circumstances. Combined intervention "Isolation+antibiotics+prophylactics+water disinfection" was predicted to result in the lowest TAR (41.9%, 95%CI: 36.97-47.04%) and shortest DO (28 days). Our actual Shigellosis control implementation that also included school closure for 1 week, attained comparable results and the modeling produced an epidemic curve of Shigellosis highly similar to our actual outbreak data. This lends a strong support to the reality of our model that provides a possible reference for public health professionals to evaluate their strategies towards Shigellosis control.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3988114?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Tianmu Chen Ross Ka-Kit Leung Zi Zhou Ruchun Liu Xixing Zhang Lijie Zhang Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China. PLoS ONE |
| title | Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China. |
| title_full | Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China. |
| title_fullStr | Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China. |
| title_short | Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China. |
| title_sort | investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in china |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3988114?pdf=render |
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